Commodities Market Impact Weather

Stressful Heat Spreading Through Northern US

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The heat's increasing drought stress across the northern United States and the consistently dry weather pattern in central Brazil continues to hold the market's attention Friday.

HEAT INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

A system brought light to moderate showers across southern and eastern areas of the Midwest this week. Drier areas across the north have seen only limited showers. An upper-level low moving through next week will bring more widespread showers back into the region. Temperatures will continue above normal, accelerating growing progress. In the absence of showers across the north, near-record highs could stress vulnerable crops for the next few days before the rains set in.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

In the Southern Plains, periods of scattered showers will continue over Texas through Saturday as an upper-level low moves into the area. The low will move northeast Sunday and next week, spreading showers across the eastern half of the region. The western half is likely to be drier, though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains at times. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend but be on a slow rising trend through next week.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, high temperatures approaching triple digits are on tap into the weekend. Humidity will also be low, causing significant stress to developing crops that need moisture. Showers may return with a system moving through this weekend, but will be isolated. The system will knock temperatures down, but only by a few degrees and only temporarily. The region will hope for showers next week as the region remains unstable, but the trend has been to keep significant showers eastward until another system moves through late next week.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

A system produced scattered showers across the Delta earlier this week, which may continue over southern areas through the weekend. More widespread showers are likely next week due to an upper-level system moving through. Recent dryness was beneficial for those still left to plant soybeans and cotton and soil moisture is adequate for early growth.

PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected for at least the next week across the Southeast as a front lingers in the region. This will improve soil moisture conditions in areas that are hit by showers.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is adequate in the Canadian Prairies due to recent heavy precipitation, but more is needed to end drought for many areas. Very few showers are expected through the weekend but could increase next week as a few systems move through the area. Temperatures well-below normal last week caused widespread frost and freezes and a need to reseed. Temperatures this week have been well above normal but will fall closer to normal this weekend and through next week. That may not be true for eastern areas, where temperatures could remain above normal.

CENTRAL BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

Another week of nearly complete dryness is forecast for central Brazil, along with above-normal temperatures. This will continue to stress and damage second-crop (safrinha) corn in the region. Southern states will see scattered showers this weekend through early next week as another system brings moderate to heavy rainfall, benefiting reproductive to filling corn and developing wheat. The front has a chance to move into central states late next week and weekend, but any showers are likely to be waning by that point.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA RAINFALL

An upper-level low in southern Russia will continue to produce showers through the weekend and most of next week. This should help recharge soil moisture, especially for eastern areas that have seen soil moisture plummet during the last month or so. Prospects for spring-sewn crops have improved over the last week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick