Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The heat is beginning to expand from the Western United States into the Northern Plains. Dryness should come with it, leading to stressful conditions for row crops.

HEAT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST

A system moving along the Ohio River will continue to bring some scattered showers to eastern areas of the Midwest on Thursday. Drier areas across the north have seen only limited showers this week. An upper-level low moving through next week will bring more widespread showers back into the region. Temperatures will continue rising above normal, accelerating growing progress. In the absence of showers across the north, near-record highs could stress vulnerable crops for the next few days.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

In the Southern Plains, periods of scattered showers will continue, especially over Texas through the weekend as an upper-level low moves into the area. The low will move northward next week, spreading showers across the eastern half of the region. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend but be on a slow rising trend through next week. Drought has been largely eliminated in the region with good soil moisture for row crops.

HEAT INCREASING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, hot and dry conditions are likely for the next several days. Showers may return with a system moving through this weekend, but they will be isolated. Ahead of the system, temperatures will approach triple digits and record highs. This will exacerbate the ongoing drought and could damage vulnerable crops. The region will hope for showers next week as the upper-level low moves near the region, but that is not guaranteed.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

A system produced scattered showers across the region during the last couple of days in the Delta, which may continue over southern areas through the weekend. More widespread showers are likely next week due to an upper-level system moving through. Recent dryness was beneficial for those still left to plant soybeans and cotton and soil moisture is adequate for early growth.

PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected for at least the next week across the Southeast as a front lingers in the region. This will allow soil moisture conditions to improve for those areas that are hit by showers.

HOT AND DRY IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is adequate in the Canadian Prairies due to recent heavy precipitation, but more is needed to end drought for many areas. Very few showers are expected for the next two days, but could increase this weekend and especially next week as several systems move through the area. Temperatures well-below normal last week caused widespread frosts and freezes and a need to reseed. Temperatures this week are well-above normal but will fall closer to normal this weekend and through next week.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL DRY

Another week of nearly complete dryness is forecast for central Brazil, along with above-normal temperatures. This will continue to stress and damage second-crop (safrinha) corn in the region. Southern states will see scattered showers this weekend through early next week as another system brings moderate to heavy rainfall. Again, the front is not expected to make it to the central states.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA RAINFALL

An upper-level low around the Black Sea will continue to produce showers for Ukraine and southwest Russia through the weekend and most of next week. This should help to recharge soil moisture, especially for eastern areas that have seen soil moisture dry up over the last month or so. Prospects for spring-planted crops have improved during the last week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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