DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is an upper-level low over Baja California with a disturbance moving into the Central Plains and another over eastern Canada. Strong ridging is developing over the West Coast. The Central Plains disturbance will briefly strengthen over the middle of the country this week but weaken quickly as it moves into the East by Friday. The ridge in the West will spread across much of the country behind it. The upper-level low will slowly move eastward into the Southern Plains this coming weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a trough will build across western Canada late this week and weekend and deepen over the West next week while the ridge builds across the East. This will force the upper-level low in the Southern Plains northward through the middle of the country, possibly leading to more widespread shower activity for the Plains and Western Corn Belt.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but a bit different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Plains and above normal elsewhere.

Temperatures will generally shift into a cool-west and warm-east pattern next week. The upper-level low will bring widespread showers northward from Texas through the western Midwest early next week, though that placement could vary depending on the track of the feature. Other showers will ride along the northern extent of the ridge across Canada next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...115 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...24 AT PETER SINKS UT AND YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...MIDLAND TX 1.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is an upper-level low over Baja California with a disturbance moving into the Central Plains and another over eastern Canada. Strong ridging is developing over the West Coast. The Central Plains disturbance will briefly strengthen over the middle of the country this week but weaken quickly as it moves into the East by Friday. The ridge in the West will spread across much of the country behind it. The upper-level low will slowly move eastward into the Southern Plains this coming weekend. A trough will build across western Canada late this week and weekend and deepen over the West next week while the ridge builds across the East. This will force the upper-level low in the Southern Plains northward through the middle of the country, possibly leading to more widespread shower activity for the Plains and Western Corn Belt.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but a bit different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the Pacific Northwest and Southern Plains and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will generally shift into a cool-west and warm-east pattern next week. The upper-level low will bring widespread showers northward from Texas through the western Midwest early next week, though that placement could vary, depending on the track of the feature. Other showers will ride along the northern extent of the ridge across Canada next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved across the region this holiday weekend, but most areas remained dry. Dryness is likely to continue through a good portion of this week. Showers may return with a system moving through this coming weekend but will be more likely next week as an upper-level system meanders into the region. The week of dryness will not be good for those areas that were largely missed from the recent showers over the rest of the region. And with drought still in place, those areas that did see beneficial showers should turn drier, stressing crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered moderate to heavy showers moved through this holiday weekend, benefiting many areas. Some flooding was also a risk across portions of Oklahoma and Texas where showers have been more plentiful since last week. Periods of more scattered showers are expected this week but an upper-level low moving into the region this coming weekend could bring more widespread showers to the region into next week. This looks more likely over the eastern half of the region. Temperatures remain below normal through much of this week, keeping growth a little slower than normal for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through the region this weekend, particularly across the western half, but most areas remained dry. Some isolated frosts occurred over the weekend across the north and Iowa, where some frost damage may have occurred. A system moving along the Ohio River will bring some scattered showers through the week, especially across the south. Drier areas across the north will see only limited chances. An upper-level low moving through next week could bring more widespread showers back into the region, especially across the western half. Temperatures will be rising through much of the week, accelerating growing progress.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Mostly dry weather was observed through this holiday weekend. Scattered showers are expected as a system moves through the region Tuesday and Wednesday and may continue over southern areas through the coming weekend. More widespread showers are likely next week due to an upper-level system moving through. The recent dryness was likely beneficial for those still left to plant soybeans and cotton and soil moisture is adequate for early growth.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Isolated showers moved through the region over the holiday weekend, but many areas remained dry as soil moisture continues to dry up. Models suggest that more pop-up type showers should be expected this week, and a front may linger over the major production areas this weekend into next week, allowing for at least some chance for improving conditions.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers moved through this holiday weekend, but most areas remained dry. Soil moisture is adequate due to recent heavy precipitation, but more is needed to end drought for many areas. Little shower activity is expected this week but could increase this weekend and especially next week as several systems move into or through the area. Temperatures well below normal last week caused widespread frosts and freezes and likely damage and a need to reseed. Temperatures this week are forecast to be well above normal but could fall below normal this weekend into next week depending on how far south the cold air can move. More frosts would be possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy rain fell from southern Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana southward this holiday weekend, with some isolated showers farther north. The limited moisture likely had little to no positive impact on the poor crop conditions through the major safrinha corn production states in the middle of the country. Another week of nearly complete dryness is forecast for these areas yet again, along with above normal temperatures. Some isolated showers will be possible through the week across southern states this week with another system bringing moderate to heavy rainfall this weekend into next week. Again, the front is not expected to make it to the central states.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Outside of some isolated showers across the far northeast and southeast, dry conditions were noted over the holiday weekend. Dry weather should continue for most areas this week, benefiting the late corn and soybean harvests. A system this weekend will bring more moderate to heavy showers across northern areas this weekend. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers shifted to eastern and southern areas over the holiday weekend, with rising temperatures across the north and west. An upper-level system will continue to bring showers to the southeast for the next several days, while more showers over Spain will spread north-northeastward this week with another system. Temperatures will be on an overall rising trend this week, benefiting developing crops.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved across Ukraine and most of Russia this holiday weekend. The showers were not consistent but were highly welcomed in Russia where soil moisture had been drying up recently. An upper-level low in the area will continue to produce shower activity through the week but the eastern portions of the region are likely to see more limited shower activity and developing spring wheat is in need of more persistent showers.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Moderate to heavy showers fell across Western Australia, while the eastern belt was dry this holiday weekend. The system across the west will continue eastward this week and is expected to bring some relieving showers to eastern areas later this week. The showers may not be overly widespread, however, leaving some dry pockets. Irrigation levels are still adequate.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the holiday weekend, but many areas remained dry. Still, recent shower activity has left most of the area with adequate moisture. Temperatures were cool and below normal, however, keeping growth slow for corn and soybeans in the northeast. Showery and cool weather is likely to continue through this week.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Two tropical cyclones have impacted the country over the last couple of weeks, which may have caused flooding damage to maturing winter wheat and canola. The monsoon is starting to arrive in the southeast, on schedule, and widespread showers are increasing across the country as well. This is allowing for widespread planting of cotton and soybeans between the showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal north and near to below normal south Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday, above to well above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday through Thursday, mostly west. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal north and below normal south Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday through Wednesday, especially east. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers, mostly south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

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