Commodities Market Impact Weather

Wet Plains Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A wet forecast in central U.S. crop areas and a mixed outlook for rainfall in Russia during the next week are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Friday.

COOLER MIDWEST WEEKEND

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for widespread Midwest showers Friday. Temperatures will be below normal through the next few days, including a risk for frost in northern portions of the region. Crop progress is likely to be a little slower because of it and there could be some isolated frost damage as well. Temperatures should then go on a rising trend next week.

WET SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

A second week of heavy precipitation is in store for the Southern Plains. Forecast models indicate widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain across the region with locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms are more persistent. Temperatures will be below normal for the next week, keeping row-crop growth slow. The cool and wet pattern is also unfavorable for filling winter wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS FREEZE

In the Northern Plains, freezing conditions were noted in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota Friday morning. Crop damage may have occurred. The pattern stays with below normal temperatures through the weekend before going on a warming trend next week. Rainfall will be limited to widely scattered showers with no meaningful easing of drought conditions.

MIXED DELTA OUTLOOK

The general weather pattern effect in the Delta is largely favorable. Soil moisture is a still a little too high in some areas, leading to slower planting progress for those still left to plant. Dryness this weekend into early next week should help to drain soils that are still too wet.

MINIMAL SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

The past week has been dry in the southeastern U.S., which helped producers to increase cotton planting. Soil moisture is starting to become limiting in some areas, however. A system will move through with scattered showers this weekend. If showers are disappointing, the dryness could start to affect germination and crop growth. Models are hinting at pop-up type showers being possible next week, though would be isolated.

PRAIRIES TO STAY DRY

The Canadian Prairies have seen some frost-level temperatures during this late week. Mostly below-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend but will be on an increasing trend next week. Outside of a system bringing isolated light showers this weekend, dryness is expected for the next week, which is not helpful either.

MORE CENTRAL BRAZIL DRYNESS

Across Brazil, central crop areas remain dry in the seven-day forecast. The Mato Grosso safrinha corn crop is stressed by this ongoing dryness. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast mainly in southern areas from Mato Grosso do Sul through Sao Paulo and Parana states through early next week.

LIGHT ARGENTINA PRECIPITATION

In Argentina, recent showers have improved soil moisture for winter wheat. Mostly dry conditions over the next week should favor the row crop harvest with showers expected only across the far north and far south late this week. Some showers may continue across the far south early next week.

SHOWERS AND COOL IN EUROPE

Scattered showers and below-normal temperatures will continue to characterize the northern half of Europe into the weekend. It should be drier next week while temperatures should rise closer to normal, if not slightly above. A system will stall in the southeast next week with periods of showers continuing to improve soil moisture there. Slow growth continues for this week, but we may see more of an accelerated growing pace next week.

VARIABLE RUSSIA RAIN FORECAST

In the Black Sea region, South Russia and Ukraine have widespread showers in the forecast through the coming weekend. Soil moisture in these crop areas is generally favorable for wheat. Farther east, the region from the Volga Valley through Siberia and into Kazakhstan has drier soils and only light rain in store. These conditions are leading to some private crop estimates for a lower total Russia wheat crop in 2021.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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