DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in eastern Canada, another in the Midwest and a third in western Canada into the Pacific Northwest. The Midwest trough will deepen a little further as it continues eastward this weekend. The western trough will move across southern Canada into next week. An upper level low will develop over the Southwest this weekend and slowly move into the Southern Plains by the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, a ridge will build in the West. Another trough may replace the ridge in the Northwest and western Canada late next week or weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but a bit different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal across the Central and Southern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly follow a warming trend next week, though it may remain below normal in the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures could fall below normal in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains late next weekend. A system will slowly move through the Midwest mid-to-late next week.

Another system could impact northwestern areas as well as western Canada next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...20 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...SPRINGFIELD MO 1.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A progressive pattern is expected over the next 10 days. There is a trough in eastern Canada, another in the Midwest, and a third in western Canada into the Pacific Northwest. The Midwest trough will deepen a little further as it continues eastward this weekend. The western trough will move across southern Canada into next week. An upper level low will develop over the Southwest this weekend and slowly move into the Southern Plains by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a ridge will build in the West. Another trough may replace the ridge in the Northwest and western Canada late next week or weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but a bit different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal across the Central and Southern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly follow a warming trend next week, though it may remain below normal in the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures could fall below normal in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains late next weekend. A system will slowly move through the Midwest mid-to-late next week. Another system could impact northwestern areas as well as western Canada next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall has helped to reduce drought conditions in some areas, though there were areas that were missed where drought continued to hold or even worsen. Some scattered showers will pass through this weekend with a system followed by some isolated showers next week. The showers will be helpful but will not be enough to reduce drought by any significant margin. Temperatures reached below freezing in North Dakota Friday morning and may have caused some frost damage for a few areas. Temperatures are below normal through the weekend before going on a warming trend next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and severe weather have occurred over the last few days. Scattered showers will continue to impact the bulk of the region through the next week but will be a little more sporadic. When showers do occur, they will likely be moderate to heavy, benefiting row crops where they hit except if they produce flooding by hitting the same area over and over again. Models display widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain across the region with locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms are more persistent. Temperatures will be below normal for the next week, keeping growth slow.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to bring widespread showers through the region Friday, building on the showers that occurred earlier in the week. Recent temperatures well above normal have helped to progress corn and soybeans further through development have fallen back below normal for the next few days into early next week. There is a risk for some isolated frosts across the northern half of the region Saturday and Sunday mornings, which includes Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, northern Indiana, and Michigan. Crop progress is likely to be a little slower because of it and there could be some isolated frost damage as well. Temperatures should then go on a rising trend next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Overall, weather for both cotton and soybeans is largely favorable. Soil moisture is a still a little too high in some areas, leading to slower planting progress for those still left to plant. Dryness this weekend into early next week should help to drain soils that are still too wet.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dryness over the past week helped producers to increase cotton planting. Soil moisture is starting to become limiting in some areas, however. A system will move through with scattered showers this weekend. If showers are disappointing, the dryness could start to affect germination and crop growth. Models are hinting at pop-up type showers being possible next week, though would be isolated.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Moderate to heavy precipitation fell across a good majority of the region over the past week, helping to ease the widespread drought. Temperatures below normal have not been helpful for germinating or developing crops, however. Low temperatures below freezing have occurred across portions of the region. Mostly below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend but will be on an increasing trend next week. Outside of a system bringing isolated light showers this weekend, dryness is expected for the next week, which is not helpful either.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall has stabilized and perhaps improved yield prospects across the south, but meager showers farther north were likely not enough to cause any reversal in the lower prospects across the higher production areas in the central states. Another system will bring moderate to heavy rainfall across southern areas only Friday through this weekend and could stall across Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo for a few days next week. The front is not expected to move into central states, where concern and drought damage continues to mount.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have improved soil moisture for winter wheat. Mostly dry conditions over the next week should favor the harvest with showers expected only across the far north and far south Friday. Some showers may continue across the far south early next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers and below normal temperatures will continue to characterize the northern half of the continent into the weekend. It should be drier next week while temperatures should rise closer to or above normal. A system will stall in the southeast next week with periods of showers continuing to improve soil moisture there. Slow growth continues for this week, but we may see more of an accelerated growing pace next week.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been confined over western Ukraine for past several days and Russia could use some more showers to go along with the above normal temperatures that have been in place. A system will swing through the region this weekend with more widespread showers, helping all crops in all areas. More isolated showers are expected next week but could be more scattered and heavier in Ukraine. Temperatures above normal will likely fall below normal across Ukraine this weekend into next week while it remains above normal in Russia.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers benefited developing winter wheat and canola in Western Australia along with southeastern growing areas. Showers did not make it into northeastern areas, causing concern for soil moisture as showers do not appear to be in the forecast until late next week. Irrigation levels are still adequate, however.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have benefited early plant growth in the northeast, and wheat and canola fill on the North China Plain. Temperatures have fallen below normal, however, and will remain so for most of the next week, keeping growth slow.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Tropical Cyclone Tauktae brought heavy rainfall to maturing wheat and canola in northwest India last week, which may have caused quality issues and damage. Tropical Cyclone Yaas is doing the same for rice in eastern India and Bangladesh as the system moves farther inland. Models are forecasting the low-pressure center stall in north-central India into the weekend. There could be more flood damage for winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday, north Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday through Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and severe storms. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Friday. Scattered showers Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, north Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to above normal north and below normal south Sunday through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers MGDS Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers east Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

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