Commodities Market Impact Weather

Variable Rain Prospects

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Variable rainfall impact across the central United States and more decline in the Brazil winter corn crop outlook are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Midwest Thursday and Friday, building on the showers that occurred earlier in the week. Rainfall is still looking no more than light to moderate in the dry northwestern sector of the region. Temperatures running well-above normal have helped to progress corn and soybeans further through development; however, the pattern turns cooler to below-normal readings through early next week. Crop progress is likely to be a little slower because of it. Temperatures should then go on a rising trend through the rest of next week.

ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Heavy rain and severe weather occurred on Wednesday in the northern portion of the Southern Plains. Scattered showers will continue to affect most of the region through the next week. This includes the prospect of locally heavy rain. Forecast models still display widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region. There will be a risk for flooding with some of the heavier downpours. Rain will generally benefit row crops due to soil moisture addition, but may be unfavorable for filling and ripening wheat as a result of cloud cover, lower temperatures and wet conditions curtailing crop quality along with promoting disease.

VERY COOL AND DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, periods of showers will continue with a couple of more systems that move through the area over the next week; however, amounts will be lighter and more isolated after Thursday's rainfall ends. Recent rain brought only slight drought relief. Temperatures are below normal through the weekend before going on a warming trend next week.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE DELTA CONDITIONS

The general weather pattern effect in the Delta is largely favorable. Soil moisture is a still a little too high in some areas, leading to slower planting progress for those still left to plant. Dryness this weekend into early next week should help to drain soils that are still too wet.

ISOLATED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

The past week has been dry in the southeastern U.S., which helped producers to increase cotton planting. Soil moisture is starting to become limited in some areas, however. A system will move through with scattered showers this weekend. If showers are disappointing, the dryness could start to affect germination and crop growth. Models are hinting at pop-up type showers being possible next week, though would be isolated.

COLDER AND DRIER IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies have had some beneficial precipitation during the past few days. However, a colder pattern has also formed, including freeze-level readings. Mostly below-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend but will be on an increasing trend next week. Outside of a system bringing isolated light showers this weekend, dryness is expected for the next week, which is not helpful either.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN FOCUS

Across Brazil, recent rainfall has stabilized and perhaps improved yield prospects across the south, but meager showers farther north were likely not enough to cause any reversal in the lower prospects across the higher production areas in the central states. Another system will bring moderate to heavy rainfall across southern areas only Friday through this weekend and could stall across Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo for a few days next week. The front is not expected to move into central states, where concern and drought damage continues to mount.

MINIMAL ARGENTINA RAIN

In Argentina, recent showers have improved soil moisture for winter wheat. Mostly dry conditions during the next week should favor the row crop harvest with showers expected only across the far north and far south late this week. Some showers may continue across the far south early next week.

COOL WITH SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Scattered showers and below-normal temperatures will continue to characterize the northern half of Europe into the weekend. It should be drier next week while temperatures should rise closer to normal, if not slightly above. A system will stall in the southeast next week with periods of showers continuing to improve soil moisture there. Slow growth continues for this week, but we may see more of an accelerated growing pace next week.

BLACK SEA REGION RAIN PROSPECT

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine have widespread showers in the forecast through the coming weekend. More isolated showers are expected next week. Temperatures mostly above normal should help crops pick up the development pace back closer to normal through the weekend. Temperatures will likely fall below normal across Ukraine this weekend into next week while it remains above normal in Russia.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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