DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies and a ridge in the East. The trough is weakening and will move along the U.S-Canada border through the week, flattening the northern extent of the ridge. Another trough will move into the West midweek and through the middle of the country through the end of the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a third trough will move into the Northwest late this week and across southern Canada into next week. Outside of the troughs, ridging will be maintained across the South and Southeast U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but are quite different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the east and near to above normal across the west. Temperatures will be quite variable over the period, but will mostly follow a warming trend. A system with a stalled front will continue across the South and Southeast through the period. Another system will move across northern areas over the weekend with yet another in the middle of the country next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW SUN...11 AT FLAGSTAFF AZ 24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...SAN JUAN PR 1.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies and a ridge in the East. The trough is weakening and will move along the U.S-Canada border through the week, flattening the northern extent of the ridge. Another trough will move into the West midweek and through the middle of the country through the end of the week. A third trough will move into the Northwest late this week and across southern Canada into next week. Outside of the troughs, ridging will be maintained across the South and Southeast U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels but are quite different at the surface. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the east and near to above normal across the west. Temperatures will be quite variable over the period but will mostly follow a warming trend. A system with a stalled front will continue across the South and Southeast through the period. Another system will move across northern areas over the weekend with yet another in the middle of the country next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across most areas over the weekend with many areas seeing over an inch of rain. Temperatures remained cold in Montana and the western Dakotas for most of the weekend as well. Showers will exit Monday morning, but two more systems will bring moderate rain through the region through the coming weekend. Rain will help to ease drought for much of the region, though it will not be eliminated. Below normal temperatures are also forecast to stick around through the week, keeping growth slower.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered moderate to heavy showers fell across the far east and far west this weekend with lighter showers in between. Periods of showers will continue for the next week but will be a bit more sporadic. Still, when showers do occur, they will likely be moderate to heavy, benefiting row crops where they hit. Models still display widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region with locally heavier amounts where thunderstorms are more persistent.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across the north and west this weekend. Rain was moderate to heavy where it occurred. This likely helped to ease some of the drought across northern areas. A system will bring a front across the region later this week with more widespread showers on Wednesday. Another system will follow closely behind to finish out the week. Temperatures well above normal have helped to progress corn and soybeans further through development but temperatures are likely to go back below normal late this week for a few days. Models disagree on how long the cold air will stick around, but crop progress is likely to be a little slower regardless.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Mostly dry weather occurred this weekend as the focus for showers shifted westward. Soil moisture in the region remains adequate to surplus so the dryness should have helped crops progress a little more rapidly. A couple of systems will bring chances for showers through the region later this week and weekend, keeping prospects on both cotton and soybeans largely favorable.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dryness over the weekend should have helped producers progress further for planting cotton. Adequate moisture remains in the area, but it should remain dry for most of this week. Chances may be better this weekend. If those chances do not materialize, we could start to become concerned.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Moderate to heavy precipitation fell across a good majority of the region over the weekend, helping to ease the widespread drought. Temperatures below normal have not been helpful for germinating or developing crops, however. Low temperatures below freezing have occurred across the western half of the region. Rain chances will mostly end on Tuesday, but another chance moves through over the coming weekend. Mostly below normal temperatures will continue through the week, keeping growth slow.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy rain moved through southern areas over the weekend. Scattered showers moved into Mato Grosso, southern Goias, and southern Minas Gerais as well, but amounts are largely estimated to be lower than one inch in these places. Rainfall has stabilized and perhaps improved yield prospects across the south, but the meager showers were likely not enough to cause any reversal in the prospects across the higher production areas in the central states. Another system will bring moderate to heavy rainfall across southern areas only late this week and weekend. The front is not expected to move into central states, where concern continues to mount.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Widespread moderate to heavy showers moved through most areas over the weekend, improving soil moisture for winter wheat. Some disruption to the corn and soybean harvest was possible. Mostly dry conditions this week should favor the harvest with showers expected only across the far north late this week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers and below normal temperatures will continue to characterize the northern half of the continent through the majority of this week. The showers may continue this weekend and for next week, but temperatures should be closer to normal, if not slightly above. Slow growth continues for this week, but we may see more of an accelerated growing pace next week.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell this weekend, but some areas remained dry. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable across the region, but periods of showers would be beneficial. There will be system that provides that on Monday, but showers may be more restricted to western Ukraine for the rest of the week. A system may swing through the region this weekend with more widespread showers. Temperatures mostly above normal should help crops pick up the development pace back closer to normal.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into Western Australia this weekend, but it remained dry in the east, where more showers would be welcome for developing wheat. The system producing the rain in Western Australia will continue across the southeast early this week. Showers are not expected to be very heavy, though. A period of dryness will follow that system for the next week, causing more concern over soil moisture. Irrigation levels are still adequate, however.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend, benefiting early plant growth in the northeast, and wheat and canola fill on the North China Plain. Temperatures have fallen below normal, however, and will remain so for most of the week, keeping growth slow.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Tropical Cyclone Tauktae brought heavy rainfall to maturing wheat and canola in northwest India last week, which may have caused quality issues and damage. Another could do the same for rice in eastern India and Bangladesh early this week. Models are currently forecasting the low-pressure center to weaken as it moves inland to the northwest but stalls it north-central India into the weekend. Should this occur, there could be more flood damage for winter wheat and canola.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday.

East: Scattered showers north Monday, west Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Scattered showers late Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavier east and west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Monday, near normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Moderate to heavy showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers, heavier south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday and Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday and Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

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