DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...106 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...21 AT PORT ANGELES WA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI TX 4.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West and a Ridge in the East. The trough will continue to dig deeper into the West over the next couple of days while the ridge remains firm. The trough will weaken over the weekend, then move northeast and along the U.S.-Canada border early next week, flattening the northern extent of the ridge. Another trough will move into the West to replace it by the middle of next week, maintaining the overall trough-west and ridge-east pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but the American model flattens the ridge a bit more than the European. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the West and Northern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal through the period, but the overall pattern should remain. Temperatures may rise on the West Coast next weekend. A couple of disturbances will move across the northern tier through next week with periods of showers. Showers will also continue across Central and Southern Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A trough moving into the West will send several pieces of energy through the region over the next 10 days with moderate to heavy showers. This should help to ease drought conditions, benefiting developing crops and increasing soil moisture. Temperatures will go below normal for several days, especially across Montana. There is a risk for accumulating snow across western Montana through Friday as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers look to continue through Sunday with isolated showers continuing next week. All developing crops will benefit from the increasing moisture. Temperatures could stand to be a bit higher for maximum benefit, but reduction of drought is likely.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue across the west for the next several days but will have a harder time making it farther east until a front drops south into the region Sunday or Monday. This may allow planting to pick up in the eastern states where it is farther behind. Periods of showers will continue next week, increasing soil moisture for most areas and reducing dryness and drought for many areas. Above normal temperatures are expected through at least the weekend and likely next week as well, benefiting developing corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers may continue on Thursday, but will be harder to come by through much of next week. Temperatures should rise near to above normal, benefiting developing soybeans and cotton and dryness should help with remaining planting. Soil moisture is adequate to surplus across the region and the dryness should not have a large impact unless the showers do not return by the end of next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Recent showers have provided adequate to surplus moisture across the region but have caused some planting delays. Showers will be hard to come by over the next week. Temperatures will rise above normal for the next seven-to-10 days, favoring additional planting and early growth. The dryness should not have a large impact unless the showers do not return by the end of next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system in the western U.S. will bring some lower temperatures to the region through the weekend and much of next week, but will also bring chances for more widespread showers, including some accumulating snow. This brings mixed conditions for planting and germinating crops, but the moisture will be very welcome.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Poor conditions continue for developing to reproductive corn in the central growing region. A front will move into southern areas Friday with some decent showers for southern areas. As the front works northward, the chances for rainfall will diminish, even if the front stalls in the area. Another front may come to southern areas late next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving into the country will produce widespread showers through Friday before becoming drier again. Soil moisture is favorable for developing winter wheat. After showers leave, conditions will again favor corn and soybean harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers and below normal temperatures continue over the next week for much of the continent. The showers have increased soil moisture but developing to reproductive winter crops and germinating summer crops could use some warmer air. Favorable conditions continue for reproductive to filling winter wheat across the south.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue over the next week, being heavier in Ukraine. Temperatures have increased and are warmer in Russia, hastening development there. Soil moisture should be adequate for now, but more showers would be beneficial to combat the heat in Russia. Temperatures below normal in Ukraine this week will rise above normal next week, benefiting growth.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent dryness has benefited late harvest of cotton and sorghum, and planting of wheat and canola. Dryness looks like it will continue through this weekend for eastern areas. The dryness may start to be a concern if moisture does not start coming back soon. A front will move into Western Australia this weekend, but it is uncertain whether it will produce any significant showers for eastern areas next week. Model trends continue to have any shower activity being spotty as the front moves through.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern areas are having trouble with too much precipitation and flooding south of the Yangtze river. Daily showers will continue near and just south of the Yangtze for the next week while only occasional showers are expected to the north. Temperatures rising above normal will promote further planting and growth for corn and soybeans in the northeast, and filling wheat and canola on the North China Plain but will fall below normal next week.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Tropical Cyclone Tauktae brought heavy rainfall to maturing wheat and canola in northwest India, which may have caused quality issues and damage. The storm has also produced heavy rain across western coast, though this is mostly ahead of planting for cotton and soybeans, which usually starts with the monsoon in June. This could produce a favorable setup for both crops closer to the coast as long as infrastructure has not been significantly damaged.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

East: Scattered showers northwest through Friday, north Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers in MGDS Friday, MGDS and Mato Grosso Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, east Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday through Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, east Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday through Monday.

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