DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Northwest. Both troughs will head east this week while a ridge builds in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the ridge will spread through much of the country next week while a trough develops back in the West. This trough could spread into the Northern Plains and Midwest next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but the European has a larger trough in the West next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the Midwest and Southeast and above normal in the West and Plains. Warmth should spread across the country into next week while below normal temperatures develop in the West. Below normal temperatures could spread through the Northern Plains and Midwest next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...106 AT DEL RIO TX AND FALCON LAKE TX AND ZAPATA TX

LOW SUN...6 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...PEORIA IL 2.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in eastern Canada with another in the Northwest. Both troughs will head east this week while a ridge builds in the West. The ridge will spread through much of the country next week while a trough develops back in the West. This trough could spread into the Northern Plains and Midwest next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels, but the European has a larger trough in the West next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the Midwest and Southeast and above normal in the West and Plains. Warmth should spread across the country into next week while below normal temperatures develop in the West. Below normal temperatures could spread through the Northern Plains and Midwest next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Moderate precipitation fell from Montana through South Dakota over the weekend and a couple of locations recorded over one inch of precipitation, helping to ease drought conditions. Northeast North Dakota remained dry and drought continues to worsen there. Scattered showers may develop near the Rockies through the week, but most areas will remain dry through at least Thursday. Three disturbances may bring more widespread showers into the area Friday through next week, which would boost soil moisture for most areas. Lower temperatures and patchy frosts early this week will rise late in the week, helping seeds germinate and help with early growth. Some models suggest lower temperatures to move back in next week, but that is uncertain.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend and will continue for the next couple of days, boosting soil moisture for wheat and emerging corn and soybeans. Temperatures will remain below normal for the next few days before rising late this week and weekend. Slow growth thus far should accelerate a bit as temperatures rise.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across mostly the southern half of the region this weekend and some snow mixed in at times across the northern extent of this band. Some isolated showers are expected on Monday, but most areas will be dry through at least Thursday, helping soils recover to continue planting. Dryness across the north could really use some moisture for germination and early growth. But temperatures below normal will continue to stunt and delay crops for much of the week, including a couple of frosty mornings. Temperatures will rise late this week and weekend, helping to accelerate germination and early growth. There will be better chances for more widespread rainfall Friday through next week as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved across the region this weekend, including some severe weather. Some periods of moderate showers will continue through Wednesday before turning drier through this weekend. The moisture will benefit early growth, though temperatures below normal will keep growth slow for much of this week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): The region was mostly dry this weekend, but recent showers have kept soil moisture very favorable. More showers this week will continue to provide adequate to surplus moisture. Temperatures below normal will keep growth slow this week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers brought 0.50 to one inch of precipitation in Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan this weekend, boosting soil moisture for drought-afflicted areas. Eastern areas remained dry and cold with poor conditions for germination and growth. Some isolated to scattered showers will be possible this week, but the picture of overall dryness will continue. A system this weekend and another early next week could bring widespread meaningful precipitation to the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Heat and dryness continued this weekend, continuing poor conditions for developing to reproductive corn. Wheat in the south saw some rainfall late last week, which will help growth, though precipitation is still behind normal in the area. A front will move north from Argentina this week and carry some shower activity into southern Brazil. Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul could see up to one inch of precipitation. The amounts will not be enough to reverse drought but may be able to stabilize some of the crop. Farther north, heat and dryness continue to have detrimental effects for corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers were starting to build across northern areas Sunday. Recent showers have disrupted the corn and soybean harvest somewhat but primed soils for winter wheat planting, which picks up in the next couple of weeks. With showers leaving northern areas early this week, overall dryness should benefit corn and soybean harvest activities.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Temperatures rose above normal this weekend and showers have been moving through since last week, benefiting most crops in most areas. Showers will continue to occur across most of the region this week. While the showers may have delayed planting in many areas and some below normal temperatures will continue across the west for a few days this week, the conditions are improving from April.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through this weekend and will continue through most of the week, maintaining overall above normal soil moisture. Lower temperatures moved in over the weekend and will stick around through much of the week before rising late this week and weekend. Overall conditions are good for developing wheat. Corn planting may have been delayed due to lower temperatures and wetness over the past several weeks but increasing temperatures and some better dry breaks should help to promote planting and early growth.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers over the west may provide some benefit to any remaining filling wheat, but most of the crop is heading into maturity. Overall dryness this week will be a benefit for harvest.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend, providing beneficial showers for germination for wheat and canola, but caused some planting delays and harvest delays for cotton and sorghum as well. A couple of periods of showers will be possible this week, mainly across the southern half of the growing regions. Northern areas could use more moisture, but the situation is not significant yet.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and below normal temperatures continued this weekend in the northeast, disrupting and delaying corn and soybean planting. Showers will be less widespread, and temperatures will be higher, benefiting warming soils for planting and germination. Showers across the North China Plain have been irregular but adequate this spring for reproductive to filling wheat and canola.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern and eastern India as they move through reproduction and fill. Scattered showers have also developed occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures rising to near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday, north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal north and below normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Scattered showers southern MGDS Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday through Friday.

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