DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the Midwest with a ridge in the West. The trough will be slow to move eastward out of the country until this weekend though a portion of it will remain behind. The ridge will be replaced by a trough Friday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the trough may sit in the West for a few days before moving eastward next week and be replaced by a ridge. Another trough may move into the Northwest late next week while the ridge slides into the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels but have differences in how widespread rainfall will be next week. I will use a model blend but favor the European, which for now is a drier solution overall.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal east of the Rockies and above normal in the West. Temperatures are likely to remain in this pattern through the period but may rise across the Central late next week and weekend. A system will ride along a frontal boundary across the south in the middle-to-end of next week. Another system will move into the Northwest late next week and weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...105 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...11 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...NEW ORLEANS LA 3.12 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Midwest with a ridge in the West. The trough will be slow to move eastward out of the country until this weekend though a portion of it will remain behind. The ridge will be replaced by a trough Friday. The trough may sit in the West for a few days before moving eastward next week and be replaced by a ridge. Another trough may move into the Northwest late next week while the ridge slides into the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar in the upper levels but have differences in how widespread rainfall will be next week. I will use a model blend but favor the European, which for now is a drier solution overall.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal east of the Rockies and above normal in the West. Temperatures are likely to remain in this pattern through the period but may rise across the Central late next week and weekend. A system will ride along a frontal boundary across the south in the middle to end of next week. Another system will move into the Northwest late next week and weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drought continues in the area. Temperatures have fallen below freezing a couple of days this week and may do so this weekend into next week as well, which could damage any emerged corn or wheat. There is a better chance for more moderate showers late Friday into Monday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region over the last few days. A couple of systems will bring good chances for periods of widespread moderate showers Friday through next week. All shower activity will benefit developing to reproductive wheat and emerging corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have fallen across the region over the last several days. The increased moisture will be good for emerging crops, though portions of the northwest could use a bit more moisture. Normally, rainfall causes planting delays, but it appears that producers are dodging the showers quite easily as planting progress is well ahead of the normal pace. Some chilly temperatures, including frost potential, are possible across the north and east into next week, which may be damaging to emerging crops. This is not a high likelihood nor is it widespread, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Moderate showers have moved through the region recently, benefiting emerged crops. The rain has delayed planting activities but mostly dry weather to finish the week should encourage producers to plant more. More moderate showers are expected this weekend into next week to benefit germination and early growth.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers continue on Wednesday before being pushed out. The showers will benefit emerging cotton but have caused planting delays. More moderate to heavy showers are expected this weekend into next week to benefit germination and early growth.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures below normal and dry conditions continue to keep planting slow. Showers have been and will continue to be more consistent across the southwest, benefiting soil moisture there. Eastern and northern areas will continue to be on the cool and dry side for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Heat and dryness have been the theme over the last couple of weeks, forcing developing-to-reproductive corn to deplete subsoil moisture across the region. A front moving northward through southern Brazil has brought moderate showers to Rio Grande do Sul for developing winter wheat but will not bring much shower activity north into Parana or Mato Grosso do Sul for corn. Overall dryness continues for another week, causing stress and damage to corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front that moved in late this weekend brought widespread showers through Wednesday. This should disrupt the harvest somewhat, but prime soils for winter wheat planting, which picks up in the next couple of weeks. Another system is set to bring more widespread showers next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Recent cold temperatures across the north and east have been concerning for winter grains over the last couple of weeks, but estimates are for mostly minor damage. Temperatures are likely to remain below normal across the north and east this week, keeping growth slow. However, more widespread showers will help increase soil moisture. The lower temperatures will likely delay spring planting further, but temperatures will rise this weekend into next week. Favorable conditions are found across the south for reproductive to filling winter grains.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to maintain overall above normal soil moisture. Higher temperatures have also moved in, promoting growth. A couple of systems will bring more showers to the area, with favorable weather for wheat. This could cause more delays for corn planting, however.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have been beneficial, and periods of showers for much of this week should be helpful for filling wheat.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Shower activity increased across the west and portions of the east this week, which will benefit early growth for winter crops, but has caused some planting delays for wheat and canola and harvest delays for cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions have been mostly favorable across the country so far this spring, though it has been overly wet across the south for rice and sugarcane and cool across the northeast for corn and soybean planting. Systems will continue to move through the region this week with shots of precipitation and roller-coaster temperatures, though the northeast is likely to remain mostly below normal. This may continue to have a delaying impact on corn and soybean planting.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers that have continued this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern India as they move through reproduction and fill. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, south early Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Sunday, east Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal west and below normal east Friday, near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers north Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday and Monday.

(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.