DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...103 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...12 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...SAN ANTONIO TX 3.16 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A fairly progressive pattern is expected over the next 10 days. There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. The trough will continue to push eastward. Another will move into the West this weekend and through the country next week. Another trough will move into the West toward the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal in the Central and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will mostly fall east of the Rockies and Northwest while rising in the Southwest. A system may bring some showers to the Midwest late next week. Another may move into the West at the end of next week. This system may move out into the Plains next weekend with showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers may have some benefit to topsoils, but the drought continues as planting progresses. There may be a risk for subfreezing temperatures late next week and weekend, but models are not consistent with this yet. More showers may be possible this weekend and next week but are not expected to be drought busters.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent moderate to heavy showers mostly missed the southwest, stressing winter wheat. A leftover system in Texas will move northeast on Sunday with scattered showers for southeastern areas. This will combine with a system Sunday to early Tuesday that will spread showers across most areas.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Above normal temperatures and dryness early this week likely caused an uptick in planting progress. Moderate to heavy showers that moved through afterwards will help new seeds germinate and grow. More showers are indicated Sunday through the middle of next week, offering more beneficial soil moisture. There is a risk for subfreezing temperatures late next week and weekend, but models are not consistent with this yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Periods of showers have saturated soils but have been followed by days of dryness, helping to drain soils and allow for planting. Overall, conditions remain favorable for early growth as long as producers can continue to get into the fields to plant. A front will move through with showers and planting delays Sunday through Tuesday. Some severe weather will also be possible.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather this week has helped soils to recover and planting to progress further. Showers will return as a system moves through next week. This could bring moderate to heavy rain and severe weather.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A brief few days of above normal temperatures will be possible through the weekend before more cold air flows into the region for much of next week and possibly beyond. There should be scattered shower chances through early next week, but drought will continue. This is likely to delay planting.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is continuing to fall as the country has gotten drier over the last few weeks. Most of the central growing regions look to be almost completely dry over the next 10 days. There may be a front that moves in next week and stalls in the south, which would have significantly positive impacts for developing corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dryness this week has allowed for harvest to resume. A front will move into the country late this weekend with scattered showers into next week, again causing delays.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Recent lower temperatures across the north and east have been concerning for winter grains over the last couple of weeks, but estimates are for mostly minor damage. Temperatures across the north and east will remain on the cooler side for the next week, keeping growth slow. The lower temperatures will likely delay spring planting further. Dryness continues to be an issue in these areas, but periods of showers this week have helped that situation some. Otherwise, favorable conditions are found across the south for winter grains.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent showers have maintained above-normal soil moisture, but the region could use some warmth for growth. A shot of cold air moved in this past weekend but is moderating. Development of winter grains has been slow, along with spring planting.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): There have been some showers recently, but the entire region could use more precipitation for filling wheat. The best shots are in Morocco this week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT): Recent dryness has continued to favor cotton and sorghum harvest as well as winter wheat planting. Dryness for much of this week will continue that trend. However, all regions could benefit from some shower activity to increase soil moisture for germinating wheat.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions have been mostly favorable across the country so far this spring, though it has been overly wet across the south for rice and sugarcane. Periods of showers through the middle of the week will maintain mostly favorable conditions. But lower temperatures in the northeast could delay corn and soybean planting if it lingers over the next couple of weeks.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers that have continued this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern India as they move through reproduction and fill. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday, south Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers northeast Friday. Isolated showers far north Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Scattered showers far south Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday, exiting east Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to below normal west and above normal east Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers far south Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.