DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the Central and East with a cutoff low also in the West. The cutoff low will move across the southern tier through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, a more progressive pattern will emerge with passing ridges and troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but the U.S. model has a system moving into the West well before the European model late next week. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal in the East and near to below normal in the West. Temperatures will rise and fall through the end of the period as the pattern is more progressive. A system in the Plains will move eastward with widespread showers through the period.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...93 AT DEATH VALLEY CA AND PHOENIX AZ

LOW WED...8 BELOW ZERO AT BURGESS JUNCTION WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...CLEVELAND OH 0.60 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the eastern U.S. with a ridge in the west. A cutoff low is escaping underneath the ridge in the west and will move across the southern tier of the country late this week and weekend. Models suggest that the main trough will retreat northward next week. This will allow for an active, but progressive pattern for next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but the U.S. model has a system moving into the west well before the European model late next week. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal in the east and near to below normal in the west. Temperatures will rise and fall through the end of the period as the pattern is more progressive. A system in the Plains will move eastward with widespread showers through the period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures below normal will continue through the next week. Drought continues as well. A system next week shows more potential for widespread moderate showers, but there remains uncertainty.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Well below normal temperatures and hard freezes over recent days may have damaged wheat and emerged corn. A system next week may bring widespread showers to the region and may benefit drought areas, but also contain severe weather risks.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent temperatures may have been cold enough to damage winter wheat and any emerged corn. Widespread rain this weekend will help damaged plants recover. Temperatures will rise next week, allowing for the growing season to get back on track.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Some rain and snow occurred Tuesday night across the north but temperatures below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings could cause damage to wheat and emerged soybeans. More widespread showers and above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and again next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Several days of dryness have allowed wet soils to drain and allow for more planting progress. Moderate to heavy showers will move through this weekend, delaying progress again.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The entire region continues to be in drought this spring. Another front is moving through Thursday and Friday, but with little precipitation. The cold continues through the weekend but should retreat northward next week. More scattered showers will be possible with a system next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have since dried up. Showers were not as widespread as was needed by developing corn, even across central areas. Another front moves through this weekend, but showers do not look to be very widespread or heavy. The end of the wet season appears to be starting for central Brazil as fronts start to clear the majority of the country's growing regions. This will overall stress safrinha corn that was planted very late as moisture is drained from the subsoil. Chances for showers may be better for southern areas as fronts tend to linger a bit longer here.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to bring showers across the country into the weekend before moving northward. Widespread moderate to heavy showers are anticipated for most areas, bogging down harvest progress.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Another cold front moving through the northern and eastern portions of continent could produce more frosts and freezes through the coming weekend, as concern for damage continues for vulnerable plants. Across the south, warmth and periods of showers should maintain favorable conditions for reproductive winter grains. The cold across the north and east is likely to further delay spring planting for corn and other crops as well.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent showers have maintained above normal soil moisture, but the region could use some warmth for more progress. A cold shot comes this weekend into early next week, mostly for Ukraine. Temperatures are not expected to be damaging but will slow progress for wheat and delay corn planting.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Timely showers this past weekend have been followed by several days of dryness. However, showers may return this weekend, favoring reproductive to filling wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): The region has been fairly dry lately, benefiting maturing corn and harvest activities. The dryness should last for the next week as well. To the east, some occasional periods will help rain-fed sugarcane and replenish irrigation reserves.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT): Recent dryness has been benefiting harvest activities for cotton and sorghum. Rainfall in the west and earlier this month in the east have filled soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which should be getting underway. Very little shower activity this week will favor all fieldwork activities.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions have been mostly favorable across the country so far this spring, though it has been overly wet across the south for rice and sugarcane. Periods of showers this week will maintain mostly favorable conditions, including in the northeast for corn and soybean planting, which should start up in the next couple of weeks.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers that have continued this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern India as they move through reproduction. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Scattered rain and snow. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday into early Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Isolated showers east Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night into Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday, near normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday, below normal Friday through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers west Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

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