DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge in the west and a trough in the Central and East. This pattern will continue through the week, though a cutoff low will undercut the ridge in the West and move across the southern tier late in the week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a more progressive pattern will emerge with passing ridges and troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the end of the period as the pattern goes more progressive. A system will move through the Midwest and Gulf Coast eastward this coming weekend.

Another system will move into the West and then the Central next week.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...95 AT OCHOPEE FL

LOW SUN...7 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...TALLAHASSEE FL 1.01 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving down into the Eastern U.S. with a ridge in the West. This ridge-west and trough-east pattern will continue through most of this week. A cutoff low will escape underneath the ridge this week and move across the country late this week and weekend. Models suggest that the main trough will retreat northward next week. This will maintain an active, but progressive pattern for next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the end of the period as the pattern goes more progressive. A system will move through the Midwest and Gulf Coast eastward this coming weekend. Another system will move into the West and then the Central next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered light showers moved through over the weekend. Temperatures fell below normal on Sunday and will mostly stay that way through the week. Though showers have started to move back into the region, amounts have not been enough to reduce drought. A system next week shows more potential for moderate showers, but it is a long way out.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, bringing beneficial showers to the entire region but is also well below normal temperatures. Hard freezes were recorded in the western half of the Plains, which may have damaged wheat. Risks for hard freezes continue through most of the week and may get into eastern areas as well, where corn planting has been more advanced.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through southern areas this weekend but were lighter than what fell in the Plains. Another front moving through late Sunday through Wednesday will bring scattered rain and snow showers along with chilly low temperatures. Some light frosts occurred in the northern half of the region this weekend but will be more likely widespread later this week behind the front. Hard freezes may occur for much of the region, doing damage to winter wheat and early-planted corn.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, but were light, allowing soils to drain and producers to get into the fields. A front that moves through on Tuesday night could produce frosts for northern areas Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing damage to wheat and early-planted soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, but were more pronounced along the Gulf Coast, where more flooding has been noted. The region will be relatively dry this week, allowing any wet soils to drain and allow for more planting progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A front brought scattered snow showers to the region this weekend, being moderate in Alberta but lighter elsewhere. The entire region continues to be in drought this spring. Another front will move through Thursday with more moderate snow showers in Alberta but less elsewhere. The cold continues through the week but could retreat northward next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell this weekend as a front moved slowly northward. This is very timely for safrinha corn, but amounts were mostly less than one inch. The showers will dry up from south to north by the middle of this week. Another front moves through this weekend, but showers do not look to be very widespread or heavy. The end of the wet season appears to be starting for central Brazil as fronts start to clear the majority of the country's growing regions. This will overall stress safrinha corn that has been planted very late. Chances may be better for southern areas as fronts tend to linger a bit longer here.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly dry conditions were noted this weekend, favorable for corn and soybean harvesting. A front will move into the country on Wednesday and bring showers into the weekend before moving northward and away. Widespread moderate to heavy showers are anticipated for most areas, bogging down harvest conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers moved through eastern areas this weekend, continue to produce mostly favorable conditions for developing winter grains. Colder temperatures remained across the west and north, with patchy frosts possibly causing some damage. Another cold front later this week could produce more frosts and freezes for northern and eastern areas through the coming weekend, as concern for damage continues for vulnerable plants. Across the south, warmth and periods of showers should maintain favorable conditions for reproductive winter grains. The cold across the north and east is likely to further delay spring planting for corn and other crops.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend and temperatures have been mild, allowing for more wheat to come out of dormancy, but cool enough to keep growth slow. Soil moisture has been good in the region due to above normal winter and spring precipitation, but the region could use some warmth for more progress. A cold shot may come this weekend into early next week, mostly for Ukraine. Temperatures are not expected to be damaging right now but will need to be watched.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Timely showers this weekend will be followed by several days of dryness. However, showers may return this weekend, favoring reproductive to filling wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): The region has been fairly dry lately, benefiting maturing corn and harvest activities. The dryness should last for the next week as well. To the east, some occasional periods will help rain-fed sugarcane and replenish some irrigation reserves.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT): Some scattered showers moved through northern New South Wales and southern Queensland over the weekend, but most areas remained dry, benefiting harvest activities for cotton and sorghum. Recent rainfall in the west and east have filled soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which should be getting underway. Very little shower activity this week will favor all fieldwork activities.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell in northeastern China ahead of soybean and corn planting, which should be starting up in the next couple of weeks. Conditions have been mostly favorable across the country so far this spring, though it has been overly wet across the south for rice and sugarcane. Periods of showers this week will maintain mostly favorable conditions.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers have continued this spring have kept conditions favorable for much of the winter crops in northwestern India as they move through reproduction. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered rain and snow Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Wednesday, below normal Thursday and Friday.

East: Scattered rain and snow through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers west Friday night. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, below to well below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered snow showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday and Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

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