DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...101 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...8 AT VERNAL UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...MOBILE AL 2.90 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a low center in the Northeast, one in the Plains, and a ridge building in the West. The two lows will move eastward through the weekend as a trough starts to move its way south over eastern Canada. This will setup a general ridge-west and trough-east pattern this weekend and continue through next week. Another upper-level cutoff low may undercut the ridge and move into the Southwest next week and along the southern tier of the country through the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal elsewhere. This general pattern will continue through next weekend, with the coldest temperatures in the Central U.S. A system will bring some showers to the northern tier late next week. Showers will develop as the undercutting low moves through the southern tier of the U.S. late next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent moderate precipitation occurred over the drought areas in North Dakota. Drought may have eased some, but it remains. Another front will bring showers early next week, but amounts are likely to be light to moderate and not have a significant impact on the drought. Cold air funneling into the region behind all of these systems is likely to delay thoughts of planting for another week or two.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low will continue to bring some more widespread showers through early Saturday, which includes snow in the northwest. This will benefit all areas with increased moisture. Cold air that follows this system could bring some frost damage to the far western areas and will slow growth of winter wheat. It should also delay thoughts of planting with risks for frosts going through much of next week as well.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The upper-level system in the Plains will move through this weekend with scattered showers across the southern half of the region. Colder temperatures continue to slow growth on winter wheat and could cause some frost issues for producers who planted corn early all the way through next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent heavy showers renewed flooding concerns across the area. Some shower activity will move through this weekend, but amounts will be mostly light, helping fields to dry out and planting activities to ramp back up.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers moved through this week, being heavy in some areas and likely delaying planting and fieldwork but providing beneficial moisture for pastures. Another round of showers this weekend could cause further delays.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have eased some of the drought over eastern areas but did not eliminate it. While the showers may give a better footing for the start of planting that happens next month, the overall theme of dryness is expected to continue into May.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers may pop up through the weekend and into early next week for central growing areas but look to be isolated and generally lighter. Stress to developing safrinha corn is expected to continue. A front in southern areas will move northward over the weekend with mostly light shower activity, stressing safrinha corn here as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to the country last week. Some areas reported more than 5 inches of rainfall, causing harvest delays and quality concerns for corn and soybeans. Dryness this week has helped to drain soils to allow equipment back into fields for harvest. There will be another front with widespread moderate precipitation in the middle of next week to cause more delays.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Lower temperatures since last week have caused some frost damage concerns for winter wheat and canola. Western areas have seen below normal rainfall over the last few weeks and could use more as wheat slowly develops. The cold will stick around through the weekend for eastern areas as temperatures slowly moderate. Another front could produce another batch of cold air later next week for eastern areas.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers in the region this week continued favorable soil moisture for winter wheat that has broken dormancy. Colder air in Europe has moderated before getting into Ukraine, keeping temperatures near to above normal. Showers will continue over the next week, continuing the favorable conditions.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Timely showers should last through the weekend, benefiting reproductive to filling wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): The region has been fairly dry lately, benefiting maturing corn and some harvest activities. A front has brought some showers to the eastern portions of the region Thursday and Friday, but most areas will remain favorably dry.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT): Heavy rain moved through Western Australia due to Tropical Cyclone Seroja this past weekend, being very beneficial to recharging soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. Most areas in the east remain dry, favoring harvest of cotton and sorghum. Soil moisture remains favorable in these areas ahead of winter wheat planting, which may start happening this week or next.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have favored winter wheat and canola development on the North China Plain, and increased soil moisture ahead of corn and soybean planting in the northeast. Showers likely delayed planting for rice in the south but are good for early growth. Some forecast dryness this weekend into next week could be the start of a drier pattern for the region.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Favorable winter and spring conditions should have much of the winter crops in northwestern India in good condition as they move through reproduction. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Sunday, mostly south. Scattered rain and snow Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, north Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday, north Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, north Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers west Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

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