Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Brazil Dryness

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Ongoing dryness in the Brazil forecast and variable rainfall in the central United States are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Friday.

SHOWERS ACROSS MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for widespread moderate rainfall in the Midwest through the weekend and much of next week. The rain will boost soil moisture but will delay fieldwork and planting. Lower temperatures are set to move in next week as well and may damage corn that has been planted early and already emerged.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN UNCERTAINTY

In the Southern Plains, two weather systems moving across the region through this weekend will largely bypass the region, stressing developing winter wheat. A cutoff low that will develop in the Rockies next week could bring more precipitation, but models do not have a good grasp on its development or potential. A colder pattern in the next 10 days will slow wheat development.

LIGHT NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Northern Plains areas have light rain showers in store during late week. However, drought easing will be minimal. In addition, strong winds will keep fire threats at extreme levels. A colder pattern next week will curtail spring wheat planting and row crop fieldwork.

DELTA RAIN WATCH

The Delta had heavy showers Wednesday. More rain is in store during the end of the week, causing delays in planting. Models are having a hard time deciding whether the region will see showers as a couple of disturbances pass nearby next week. If they do, there could be additional planting delays.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Southeastern U.S. areas have periods of showers through the weekend, delaying planting but also providing ample moisture for spring pasture growth. Models are having a hard time deciding whether the region will see showers as a couple of disturbances pass nearby next week. If they do, there could be additional planting delays.

DROUGHT CONCERN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The entire Canadian Prairies region is in drought going back to last summer. This leaves the region very dry to start the spring planting season. Producers will likely delay planting as much as possible until decent rains come for proper germination. However, the theme of dryness should last for the next month or so, despite some occasional showers.

MINIMAL BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil continues with a dry forecast for central crop areas during the next 10 days. In addition, temperatures have an above- to much-above normal temperature values. This hotter and drier pattern poses a stressful scenario for growing and developing second-crop (safrinha) corn. Showers are likely to go more isolated or dry up completely this weekend.

HARVEST-DELAYING ARGENTINA RAIN

Across Argentina, frequent periods of showers and thunderstorms through the next five days are likely. Central growing areas will see harvest disruption and possible quality losses due to the rainfall. This rain prospect adds to reduced crop size as a result of drought earlier in the crop year.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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