DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT FALCON LAKE TX

LOW WED...1 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...SHREVEPORT LA 1.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A trough in western Canada will send a few pieces of energy into the U.S. through the next week. A stubborn ridge off the East Coast will cause the disturbances to stall over the Midwest. The Canadian trough will eventually retreat farther north and west, allowing for a ridge to build into the West by the end of next week. Meanwhile, a cutoff low, left over from one of the stalled disturbances, will sit in the Great Lakes at the end of next week.

There may be another cutoff low that hangs out over the Rockies next week as well.

The U.S. and European models show some distinct differences in how to treat these disturbances as they stall around the Midwest and how another disturbance may develop. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal in the Northwest, Plains, and western Midwest and near to above normal elsewhere. The below normal temperatures will slowly spread to the East Coast through the end of next week while temperatures in the West will rise. A system will be stalled in the Great Lakes. A couple of disturbances may move across the southern tier of the country next week with scattered showers as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Moderate rain and snow fell over South Dakota Tuesday and Wednesday. Another system will move through late Thursday and Friday and a third system is expected over the weekend.

Outside of recent precipitation in South Dakota, amounts will be mostly light, not being able to put a dent in the ongoing drought conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Moderate showers associated with the first of three systems continues across eastern areas Thursday morning. This first system will have the most impact of the three. Some showers occurred in the southwest, where dryness had started to return to the region. However, the other two systems are likely to leave this portion of the Plains rather dry, stressing developing winter wheat. A cutoff low that will develop in the Rockies next week could bring more periods of showers could bring about more precipitation, but models do not have a good grasp on its development or potential. Regardless, colder temperatures next week may be a concern for vulnerable wheat plants.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Three systems will move into the region and stall, with periods of moderate showers continuing through the next week.

This should help to increase soil moisture for some of those drier sections of the region, but delay fieldwork and planting.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recently dry conditions allowed soils to drain and producers to get back into their fields in many cases. However, heavier showers moved through on Wednesday and a couple more storm systems will move through the middle of the country over the next week, with periods of moderate to heavy showers. This will likely cause planting delays.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue over central areas for the next couple of days, easing concerns for safrinha corn establishment and growth. Very little shower activity continues over the south, in a reversal from last week. Showers over the central growing areas will be necessary to keep soil moisture from falling early due to later planting dates and the start of the dry season, which will come in a few weeks. Showers are likely to go more isolated or dry up completely this weekend. Dryness over southern areas will start to cause a concern if frontal systems cannot move north from Argentina with adequate precipitation.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions had been favorably dry for much of the country over the last week. A system is slowly moving north through the weekend with continuous periods of showers producing heavy rainfall over southern and central growing areas. This would be untimely for maturing crops and could cause quality issues.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Milder temperatures last week helped winter crops awaken from dormancy. A blast of colder air has spread across the continent this week. Several mornings below freezing may have impacted vulnerable young plants. Temperatures will see a brief rise this weekend but there could be more cooler temperatures next week, at least for the west. Otherwise, soil moisture is favorable for winter crop development across the continent.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A blast of cold air moving through Europe is moderating as it gets into the Black Sea region, but will still be near to below normal over the next couple of days and continue. Temperatures are expected to rise over the weekend and winter crops should be awakening from dormancy next week if they have not already. With the ample soil moisture from winter, crops should find favorable conditions once they do.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continued over western areas over the last week, with increasing concern for winter wheat that is getting farther into and through reproduction. Eastern areas, which have seen far less precipitation this spring, are drawing more concern for yield prospects, but saw some showers over the last couple of days. However, dryness is likely to take over for the next week for much of the region with only occasional isolated showers.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers have fallen this week, but is turning drier. Later-planted corn is likely enduring some stress despite the overall wetness earlier this year, but most of the crop is advancing through maturity.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dry weather over the last week has helped mature cotton and sorghum to dry out, and has favored harvest activities. Tropical Cyclone Seroja is forecast to move over western Australia with beneficial heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week in advance of winter wheat planting.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Showers have picked back up across much of the region, though there is still some concern for oil palm in western Malaysia specifically. The increased showers may be enough for the crop going forward, however, and harvest activities are starting up.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent and forecast showers are benefiting developing winter crops and prepping soil moisture for spring crops, which will start to occur in the next week or two.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Favorable winter and spring conditions should have much of the winter crops in northwestern India in good condition entering spring. Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Periods of scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Scattered showers north Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

East: Periods of scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Periods of scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday.

6-- to 1 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday.

Isolated showers north Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers, mostly north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Isolated showers northwest Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy rain Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

John Baranick