USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Summary

By DTN Staff

OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2021, was 74.8 million head. This was down 2% from March 1, 2020, and down 3% from Dec. 1, 2020, USDA NASS reported on Thursday.

Breeding inventory, at 6.21 million head, was down 3% from last year, and down 1% from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 68.6 million head, was down 2% from last year, and down 3% from last quarter.

The December 2020-February 2021 pig crop, at 33.3 million head, was down 1% from last year. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.04 million head, down 1% from previous year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 10.94 for the December 2020-February 2021 period, compared to 11.00 last year.

United States hog producers intend to have 3.07 million sows farrow during the March-May 2021 quarter, down 3% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 2% from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for June-August 2021, at 3.12 million sows, are down 4% from the same period one year earlier, and down 5% from the same period two years earlier.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 50% of the total United States hog inventory, up 1% from the previous year.

DTN ANALYSIS

"We knew that Thursday's Hogs and Pigs Report had the chance at throwing the market some curveballs given that analysts' estimates varied significantly -- but Annie bar the door because hog supplies are tightening, and demand is roaring!" said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "With reductions seen from comparisons made to the previous quarterly report back in December, and then to a year ago, the biggest outlying factor found in Thursday's data is that there are fewer hogs lining the countryside, period.

"The challenging thing to do with this data is to interpret what it means today and what it means for the weeks to come. Back in December, the hog market was in a completely different situation, thinking that supplies were going to be problematic in the near future. And, a year ago, packers were pulling on hog supplies as fast as they could before plants got shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks.

"Today, we look at Thursday's data and see that the United States' inventory on March 1 totaled 74.8 million head -- down 2% from a year ago and down 3% from December 2020. Breeding inventory March 1 totaled 6.21 million head, which is down 3% from a year ago and down 1% from December. The market hog inventory March 1 totaled 68.6 million head, which is 2% less than a year ago and down 3% from the previous quarter. And the December 2020 through February 2021 pig crop totaled 33.3 million head -- down 1% from a year ago.

"Thursday's report undoubtedly comes as a bullish charge to the hog market. With pork demand domestically and internationally being stellar and knowing that China is facing ongoing problems with African swine fever, the demand for U.S. pork supplies continues to grow while the number of hogs dwindles. Thursday's report came to hog producers like an unexpected Christmas present."

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To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

	2020	2021	2021 as percent of 2020
	(1,000 head)	(1,000 head)	(percent)
All Hogs March 1	76,179	74,773	98
Kept for Breeding	6,375	6,215	97
Kept for Marketing	69,804	68,558	98
WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.	21,571	21,288	99
50-119 lbs.	19,353	19,118	99
120-179 lbs.	15,086	14,705	97
180 lbs. and over	13,793	13,446	97
FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS*
Dec-Feb	3,068	3,041	99
Mar-May *	3,132	3,149	97
Jun-Aug *	3,260	3,124	95
Dec-Feb Pig Crop	33,745	33,270	99
	(number)	(number)	(percent)
Dec-Feb Pigs Per Litter	11.00	10.94	99

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