Commodities Market Impact Weather

Active Midwest Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- An active pattern in the Midwest during late week and more dryness in central Brazil's forecast are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for a late-week storm system to bring heavy rain to the eastern Midwest. Recent precipitation has done much to ease local dryness and drought, benefiting winter wheat exiting dormancy and preparing soils for spring row-crop planting. Areas near the Ohio River could be a little too wet, causing some delays for fieldwork. Meanwhile, northern areas are too dry with some phase of drought in effect according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

MORE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

An active weather pattern remains in effect across the Southern Plains. Periods of light to moderate precipitation will continue through early next week, offering more soil moisture for growing winter wheat and ahead of row-crop fieldwork. Recent precipitation has eliminated or eased drought for much of the region. Winter wheat that has broken dormancy finds generally favorable conditions.

STILL DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, drought conditions have deepened in North Dakota, with almost the entire western half of the state in extreme drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. South Dakota has seen some dryness easing due to recent precipitation. A storm system moving through this weekend will have little to no shower activity.

WET PERIOD FOR DELTA

The Delta had rainfall Tuesday. Rain continues Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a third storm system during the coming weekend. Soils will remain soggy with disruptions to planting.

MORE DRYNESS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Across Brazil, dry conditions continue in the forecast for central crop areas. This pattern is favorable for soybean harvest progress and completion of planting second-crop (safrinha) corn. However, the drier trend leads to concern over the prospect of the rainy season coming to an early end. If that happens, second-crop corn would be in jeopardy due to its moving through reproductive and filling phases at a time when very little rain is featured.

CONTINUED ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina has continued rain in the forecast through the weekend. The moisture is useful for stabilizing corn and soybean yield prospects at lower levels than earliest projections. Dryness earlier in the growing season has already led to lower crop estimates.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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