Commodities Market Impact Weather

Summer Dryness Indication

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Another storm system forming for the central United States during midweek and indications of a dry and hot summer in the Plains and western Midwest are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Tuesday.

NEW MIDWEST RAIN SYSTEM

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to locally heavy rain in the southern half of the Midwest during Wednesday and Thursday. This turn to a more active pattern continues with another storm system in the forecast during next week. Yet another system next week could produce more widespread showers again. Soil moisture will continue to improve for drier areas in the region, notably in western Iowa and around the Great Lakes.

MORE MOISTURE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, additional precipitation is indicated during Tuesday and Wednesday as moderate to heavy rain with some snow in western areas. This will continue the beneficial reversal of fortune for winter wheat as it exits dormancy along with providing moisture benefit ahead of row crop planting.

VARIABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION

Northern Plains crop areas have variable soil moisture following the mid-March storm system. South Dakota and Montana have had soil moisture improvement due to heavy wet snow. North Dakota still needs significant moisture. Very little activity is expected in the region from the midweek central U.S. storm system, however.

STORMY IN DELTA

The Delta has more showers in store Wednesday and Thursday as a new storm system moves through the region with possible severe intensity. This stormy trend will delay some early fieldwork and planting.

HOT AND DRY SUMMER SUGGESTION

The latest seasonal forecasts released by the International Climate and Research Institute (IRI) call for much-above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during June-through-August in the western Midwest, Plains and Canadian Prairies. The hotter and drier trend is also indicated for the entire western U.S. This suggests stressful conditions ahead for corn and soybean reproductive and filling stages in the 2021 growing season.

WIDESPREAD BRAZIL RAIN PROSPECT

Across Brazil, southern crop areas have widespread moderate to heavy rain in the forecast during the balance of this week. Meanwhile, daily scattered showers across central and northern areas will continue to delay soybean harvest and double-crop corn (safrinha) planting. Some districts in central Brazil have had emergencies declared due to extensive crop damage and flooding from heavy rain.

LATE-ARIVING ARGENTINA RAIN

In Argentina, a storm system will produce widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through Tuesday that will be timely for many growing regions. A system will try to do the same this weekend but may not make it far into Buenos Aires or La Pampa. Some of the earlier planted corn and soybeans will see little to no benefit as they go into maturity.

FAVORABLE RUSSIA TREND

Winter grain crops in Russia are reportedly in widespread good to excellent condition ahead of the post-dormancy phase. The Black Sea region saw periods of showers during the past weekend which maintain adequate soil moisture for wheat and barley.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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