DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern remains progressive through the rest of this week with mostly small disturbances pushing a front across the Plains and Midwest with periods of showers. An upper-level low will move into the Southwest late this week, inducing a strong storm in the Plains this weekend. This storm is likely to produce heavy precipitation, including snow, and blizzard conditions.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the upper-level low will traverse the country, while another trough moves through next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they do disagree somewhat with how to develop a system early-to-mid next week. They have also been inconsistent with themselves. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be below normal from the West through the Central and Southern Plains and the Northeast and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will likely become near to below normal across most of the country through the end of next week, but remain quite cold over the heavy snowpack that occurs in the Plains. A system will move out of the Plains and through the Midwest early next week with moderate precipitation.

The front to the system may not pass through the Southeast, hanging there instead and providing heavy precipitation potential through the end of next week as another system grabs onto the front.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...87 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...5 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...HONOLULU HI 1.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

An active and progressive pattern over the next 10 days will bring several storm systems through the country.

The U.S. and European models are similar, though they do disagree somewhat with how to develop a system early-to-mid next week. They have also been inconsistent with themselves. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be below normal from the west through the central and Southern Plains and the northeast and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will likely become near to below normal across most of the country through the end of next week but remain quite cold over the heavy snowpack that occurs in the Plains. A system will move out of the Plains and through the Midwest early next week with moderate precipitation. The front to the system may not pass through the Southeast, hanging there instead and providing heavy precipitation potential through the end of next week as another system grabs onto the front.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT): A system is moving across the southeast Wednesday with much-needed precipitation for South Dakota in the form of snow. Drier weather will take back control for the rest of the week, though there is potential for more moderate to heavy showers to occur late this weekend into early next week across the south.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers that fell late last week were beneficial for winter wheat that is starting to break dormancy. A frontal boundary and a few pieces of energy will try to bring more showers to the region over the next couple of days. A system this weekend will bring moderate to heavy rain and snow across the region, including for the areas in drought in the west. Blizzard conditions may be the result over the west. The track of this feature will be important for precipitation prospects. Cold air will fill in behind the system for next week, but temperatures do not appear to be cold enough to cause damage at this time.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A frontal boundary will be pushed progressively eastward by a few storm systems this week. Each impulse could bring moderate precipitation to the region, benefiting soil moisture as we head into spring. A system that will impact the Plains this weekend could bring moderate precipitation to the region next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dryness this week continues to aid producers trying to do early fieldwork and planting. A front will sag into the region with bouts of moderate to heavy rain across the north Thursday through Saturday. The system in the Plains may bring more moderate showers across the region Sunday and Monday, including severe weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness over the south will largely continue into next week, producing stress for remaining immature corn and soybeans and newly planted corn. Continued showers over the central and north will have plenty of gaps to get soybean harvest and corn planting progress farther along. Rainfall amounts will likely be lower than normal for much of the region this week outside of some isolated areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through with isolated showers across the south and west through this weekend, but dryness continues to be a concern for much of the region. A system next week could bring more widespread moderate to heavy showers, though models are not sold yet as to how much precipitation will occur.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some dormancy has broken across France. Otherwise, crops continue to be mostly dormant across the north and east in good condition. Across the south, conditions have remained mostly favorable for vegetative wheat as showers move back into Italy. Scattered showers will impact southern areas in the front half of the week and a system will bring widespread showers to most of the continent later this week, benefiting crops across all areas.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures below freezing have kept wheat in dormancy so far this March, and the pattern for below normal temperatures should continue to do so over the majority of this week. Precipitation over the winter has been near to above normal for most places, putting the region in better shape as we head toward spring when wheat does break dormancy.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell over the weekend, particularly in Morocco and Algeria, and has improved conditions for reproductive wheat, especially in Algeria. Dryness in Tunisia is a little more concerning as showers early this week have mostly missed the country.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Isolated showers over the next week will not bring much precipitation, but soil moisture continues to be adequate to surplus, benefiting developing sugarcane and reproductive to filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dryness continued over the weekend, though most of the growing regions continue to be in good condition. Showers will be a little more widespread this week across Queensland and New South Wales, benefiting immature cotton and sorghum.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Showers have picked back up a bit in Indonesia, but continue to be isolated in Malaysia, where there continues to be concern for oil palm. Models are indicating better precipitation chances late this week and weekend, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, south Friday through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday through Sunday.

East: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, south Friday, southwest Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Moderate to heavy rain and snow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday and Saturday, below normal west and near to above normal east Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers north Thursday through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near normal Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, west Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday night. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers west Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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