DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern remains progressive this week with mostly small disturbances pushing a front across the Plains and Midwest with periods of showers.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, an upper-level low will traverse the country, making a stronger storm system from the Southern Plains to the Midwest over the weekend to early next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the West and above normal in the East. Temperatures will fluctuate through the extended period, though below normal temperatures in the Plains will likely be a more dominant feature. A system will likely emerge out of the Rockies into the Central or Southern Plains this weekend and spread northeast next week.

Moderate to heavy precipitation could be in store along its path, helping to put a dent in the ongoing drought in the Central and Southern Plains.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...88 AT TUCSON (RYAN) AZ

LOW SUN...14 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...PORTLAND OR 0.22 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A progressive pattern over the next 10 days will bring several storm systems through the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be below normal in the West and above normal in the East. Temperatures will fluctuate through the extended period, though below-normal temperatures in the Plains will likely be a more dominant feature. A system will likely emerge out of the Rockies into the Central or Southern Plains this coming weekend and spread northeast next week. Moderate to heavy precipitation could be in store along its path.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT): Warm and dry conditions were noted over the weekend, which continue for Monday. A system may bring some scattered showers and falling temperatures on Tuesday, with another piece moving across the southeast Wednesday. This second piece could bring much-needed precipitation to the Dakotas, mostly in the form of snow. Drier weather will take back control for the rest of the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers that fell late last week were beneficial for winter wheat that is starting to break dormancy. A frontal boundary and a few pieces of energy will try to bring more showers to the region this week. A system this coming weekend may bring moderate to heavy precipitation across the region, including for the areas in drought in the West. The track of this feature will be important for precipitation prospects. Cold air will fill in behind the system for next week, but temperatures do not appear to be cold enough to cause damage at this time.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry and mostly warm conditions spread across the region this weekend. A frontal boundary will be pushed progressively eastward by a few storm systems this week. Each impulse could bring moderate precipitation to the region, benefiting soil moisture as we head into spring. A system that will impact the Plains this weekend could bring moderate precipitation to the region next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Mostly dry conditions over the week helped soils to drain from the heavy rain earlier last week. Dryness this week will continue to aid producers trying to do early fieldwork and planting, though some showers will occur late this week across the north as a front sags into the region.

Moderate to heavy rain may be the result going into the weekend and early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers migrated from south and central to central and north over the weekend, with southern areas drying out. Dryness over the south will largely continue this week, producing stress for remaining immature corn and soybeans and newly planted corn. Continued showers over the central and north will have plenty of gaps to get soybean harvest and corn planting progress further along. Rainfall amounts will likely be lower than normal for much of the region this week outside of some isolated areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly dry weather over the weekend continued to stress reproductive to filling corn and soybeans across a vast area of the country. A couple of weak fronts will produce showers this week, but amounts could be promising for some isolated areas across the south and west. Still, the theme of dryness continues for most of the country this week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some dormancy has broken across France, though it has likely been spotty. Otherwise, crops continue to be mostly dormant across the north and east in good condition. Across the south, conditions have remained mostly favorable for vegetative wheat, though dryness in Italy over the last couple of weeks has decreased soil moisture. Scattered showers will impact southern areas in the front half of the week and system will bring widespread showers to most of the continent later this week, benefiting crops across all areas.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures below freezing have kept wheat in dormancy so far this March and the pattern for below normal temperatures should continue to do so over the majority of this week. Precipitation over the winter has been near to above normal for most places, putting the region in better shape as we head toward spring when wheat does break dormancy.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell over the weekend, particularly in Morocco and Algeria, and has improved conditions especially in Algeria. Dryness in Tunisia is a little more concerning as showers early this week will continue to mostly miss the country.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Isolated showers over the next week will not bring much precipitation, but soil moisture continues to be adequate to surplus, benefiting developing sugarcane and reproductive to filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dryness continued over the weekend, though most of the growing regions continue to be in good condition. Showers will be a little more widespread this week across Queensland and New South Wales, benefiting immature cotton and sorghum.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Showers have picked back up a bit in Indonesia, but continue to be isolated in Malaysia, where there continues to be concern for oil palm. Models are indicating better precipitation chances late this week and weekend, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers south Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to well above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, west Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday night. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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