DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...87 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL, POMPANO BEACH FL, AND WEST KENDALL FL LOW WED...22 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...SAVANNAH GA 1.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A progressive pattern over the next 10 days will see several systems moving through the country. Stronger storms will be possible in the extended period.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be below normal on the West Coast and in the Southeast and above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will fall into a cool-west and warm-east pattern by the end of next week. A system will likely develop over the middle of the country in the middle of next week, followed by another at the end of next week and weekend. Both systems could bring moderate to heavy precipitation to portions of the Plains and Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT): Dry and warm conditions are expected through Monday. This will continue to build the dryness and drought in the region as we head toward spring. However, a storm system may develop in the middle of next week, followed by another late next week, which could bring much needed precipitation.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will move through the region Thursday and Friday, which may keep the drought from getting worse but will not improve conditions dramatically. A series of systems are expected next week that will likely miss dry sections in the west, but bring scattered showers to the north and east, possibly easing drought. With daytime highs getting into the 60s Fahrenheit, soil temperatures are getting warm enough for winter wheat to break dormancy and the moisture from these systems will be important.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures above normal may have started to coax winter wheat out of dormancy in a few areas as soil temperatures are getting into the 40s Fahrenheit. These areas have adequate to surplus soil moisture. Little precipitation is expected through early next week and drought may worsen until a system moves through in the middle of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy showers over the last week have bogged down soils and produced some flooding across the region, putting delays into early fieldwork and spring planting. Dryness through early next week should help to drain soils.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers continue from Mato Grosso to Rio Grande do Sul for the next couple of days, but a system moving northward will bring a front through the area late this week and weekend. The front will spread showers further east while clearing out southern areas. The widespread showers will likely cause more delays for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting, though producers have been working around the showers over the past couple of weeks. Rainfall will be more important for soil moisture as we head toward autumn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Pop-up showers over the next few days will not be able to bring much relief to the dryness that has occurred over the last couple of weeks. This continues to cause concern for immature corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent warm temperatures have allowed for snowmelt to continue, though crops remain dormant in good shape. Across the south, conditions have remained mostly favorable for vegetative wheat, though dryness in Italy over the last week has decreased soil moisture. A front will move through the eastern half of the continent over the next couple of days with colder air filtering in behind it, though not damaging to any wheat that may be starting to come out of dormancy.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Winter wheat went into dormancy in poor shape last autumn. Precipitation over the winter has been near to above normal for most places, however, putting the region in better shape as we head toward spring. Warm temperatures have allowed for snowmelt to occur across a wide area. A front will produce some showers and bring in some colder air over the next couple of days but will not be damaging to any wheat as it remains mostly dormant.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will filter in across the region through the weekend and early next week. Amounts may not be impressive but will be welcome as dryness has hurt developing wheat in Algeria and Tunisia especially.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Isolated showers over the next week will not bring much precipitation, but soil moisture continues to be adequate to surplus, benefiting developing sugarcane and reproductive to filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Dryness this week has lowered soil moisture, but showers look to return next week. Conditions continue to be mostly favorable for cotton and sorghum.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Isolated showers started to pop back up in Malaysia but are isolated and light, continuing a dry trend over the last couple of weeks. Isolated showers will likely continue this week. Showers have been more scattered in Indonesia, where concern is lower for oil palm prospects.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal west and near to below normal east through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal west and above normal east Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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