Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued dry and very warm to hot conditions in Argentina and a wet forecast for central Brazil are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Monday.

MIDWEST DRYNESS CONCERNS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very little precipitation in the Midwest during the coming week. The drier trend will combine with above-normal temperatures to coax winter wheat out of dormancy. These areas have adequate to surplus soil moisture. In the western areas, very little precipitation is expected. Drought may worsen until a system moves through in the middle of next week.

MINIMAL SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, weekend showers were focused in the eastern sector of the region. Western areas were mainly dry. Some scattered showers may move through the region late Thursday and Friday, which may keep the drought from getting worse, but if these showers do not happen, conditions will continue to be poor as wheat begins to come out of dormancy.

ONGOING NORTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

A few showers crossed the Northern Plains during the weekend. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for the next seven to 10 days. This will continue to build the dryness and drought in the region as we head toward spring.

EARLY-WEEK DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, heavy showers during the last week bogged down soils and produced some flooding, putting delays into early spring planting. Showers this week will likely end after Tuesday, allowing for soils to drain.

MORE WET CENTRAL BRAZIL CONDITIONS

In central Brazil, widespread rain this week will cause more delays for soybean harvest and safrinha (second crop) corn planting, though producers have been working around the showers during the past two weeks. The statistics service IMEA estimates safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso is just 55% complete versus 92% a year ago, raising production risks if the crop pollinates during the dry season.

DRY ARGENTINA FORECAST

Argentina's primary crop areas had well-under half the average precipitation during February. The week ahead continues the dry trend with very little precipitation indicated. In addition, temperatures will mainly be above normal, stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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