DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A series of weak troughs will move through the country this week. One of these troughs will dig into the West late this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6- to 10-day period, the western trough will move through the country next week while another takes its place in the West early next week and moves through the country late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the upper level pattern but there are some key differences in how they treat storm systems. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the West and near to above normal east of the Rockies. Some cooling may occur across the northern tier of the country as a system passes through, but the overall pattern of cool in the West and warm in the East should continue through the period. Disturbances may produce a few storm systems during the period, though models disagree on the timing and strength of these storms.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT FALCON LAKE TX

LOW SUN...16 BELOW ZERO AT ESTCOURT STATION ME AND CLAYTON LAKE ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...JUNEAU AK 0.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A series of weak troughs and disturbances will move through the country this week. One of these troughs will dig into the West late this week and weekend, moving through the middle of the country next week with an attendant storm early next week. Another trough will take its place in the West early next week and move across the country late next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the upper level pattern but there are some key differences in how they treat storm systems. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the West and near to above normal east of the Rockies. Some cooling may occur across the northern tier of the country as a system passes through, but the overall pattern of cool in the West and warm in the East should continue through the period. Disturbances may produce a few storm systems during the period, though models disagree on the timing and strength of these storms.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures have risen above normal and should continue for this week. Models disagree on whether or not to bring below normal air through the region afterward, but there is a chance. However, any below normal stretches are likely to be short-lived and not nearly as intense as we saw the last couple of weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend except in Nebraska, where some light to moderate snow occurred. Much of the week will be dry. Models are unsure of whether or not a storm system will move through this weekend, but it could be significant if it comes together, bringing widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a region that continues to deal with drought across the north and west.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system was bringing moderate showers to the region on Sunday that will continue into early Monday before leaving to the east. Another system will move across the north late Monday and Tuesday with snow showers around the Great Lakes. Otherwise it looks quieter this week with temperatures climbing above normal. Models are unsure of how a storm system will come together this weekend, but it could be widespread moderate to heavy precipitation if it everything aligns. Areas of drought have been declining over the last over the last month and that may continue, especially if the system this weekend does get itself together.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais and points northward this weekend, creating further delays for soybean harvesting and corn planting. This looks to continue mostly this week, though the showers may not be as widespread as the previous couple of weeks and may allow for some fieldwork to get done. A window for fieldwork opened again across the south. However, a front will come through between Tuesday and Thursday with widespread showers, which could be moderate to heavy. This would delay fieldwork but benefit immature corn and soybeans and any newly planted corn. After the front moves through, dryness looks to establish itself again over the south.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front produced some scattered showers over the weekend, but they were not widespread. More mature areas in the northeast were likely able to get some harvest completed while immature crops across the country created stress. A front moving through the country through early Wednesday will produce some showers. They could be intense where they occur, but it does not look to be a widespread event, leaving areas missed and stressed. Dryness will follow this front for the following week or maybe more.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Dry and warm weather returned to the majority of the continent this weekend, benefiting vegetative winter wheat across the south, where soil moisture has been mostly adequate to surplus. A system was moving through Spain on Sunday but will fizzle out in the western Mediterranean Sea early this week. Otherwise, the warmth and dryness is expected to continue, melting some of the snowpack across the continent this week.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions last week were replaced by showers in the west this weekend. A system moving through will fizzle out as it moves into the western Mediterranean early this week. Dryness in Algeria continues to be concerning for vegetative wheat as dryness will likely continue across the majority of the region this week, though some showers may return to Morocco late this week.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): A tropical cyclone remained far enough offshore not to make much of an impact this weekend other than keeping the region drier than it has been over the growing season. With the cyclone moving far southeast of the region, showers will return for the week, benefiting developing sugarcane and reproductive to filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers have fallen across the east coast this weekend, but most of the interior remained dry. Despite this, soil moisture and irrigation supplies remain adequate for cotton and sorghum. Showers will likely pop back up later this week for New South Wales and Queensland and continue into the coming weekend.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Dryness continues to impact Malaysia, with more isolated showers over Sumatra. While rainfall this season has been adequate to surplus, the growing dryness is becoming a concern.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures rising to near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered showers late Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday, northeast Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures rising near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers west late Wednesday, south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday, below normal Thursday and Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers, mostly north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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