DTN Daily Basis Comments

Monday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 17 cents under the March futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 8 cents at $5.26. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 41 cents under the March futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 2 cents at $13.36. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent stronger at 25 cents under the March futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 5 cents at $6.06. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 28 cents under the March futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 3 cents at $6.01.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $5.26 -$0.08 -$0.17 Mar -$0.001
Soybeans: $13.36 $0.02 -$0.41 Mar $0.001
SRW Wheat: $6.33 -$0.12 -$0.18 Mar $0.002
HRW Wheat: $6.06 -$0.05 -$0.25 Mar $0.002
HRS Wheat: $6.01 -$0.03 -$0.28 Mar $0.002

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Friday is at 17 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. March corn started Friday higher but closed down 7 1/2 cents; for the week notched a slight gain of 4 cents. Friday's Weekly Export Sales and Shipments (WESS) reports showed shipments were down for the week ended Feb. 11, but total corn export commitments in 2020-21 are up 134% from a year ago. Cash corn and feed product movements are struggling as some major ethanol plants are having transportation, energy and operational difficulties. Many have slowed production and some have had to shut down. It can take plants a long time to recover from a shutdown in the cold weather when they try to start up again. The feed market is the piece of the equation suffering the most with the inability of some feed products to get moved because of rail and truck problems or unavailable product. Track PNW shuttle basis was 15 cents stronger for the week as logistics continued to be plagued by weather-related problems. BNSF secondary shuttle freight also rose the past week with February rising to bids of $600 per car above tariff against offers of $1,000. UP secondary freight also moved higher February with bids at $500 over against offers of $1,000. CIF NOLA basis was also firm the past week as barges are struggling to make their way down to the Gulf because of the poor river conditions.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Friday is at 41 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. March soybeans closed up 2 1/4 cents Friday, finding support from heavy rain expected for central and northern Brazil, with lighter amounts for southern Brazil and Argentina. Argentina weather will remain dry and is concerning given the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 11% of soybean crops were rated poor or very poor, versus 8% the previous week. Soybeans also saw support from the 64-cent rise in soybean oil Friday. For the week, March soybeans gained 5 1/4 cents. There is nothing going on in the PNW as far as a nearby basis bid, while Gulf basis and track St. Louis basis was 1 cent stronger. As temperatures start to warm up, there are still ice issues on the Illinois River stalling barge movement, as well as in St. Louis and down river. Concern now is that ice jams may form as the ice moves downriver, especially where there are bends in the rivers.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Friday is at 18 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Friday is at 25 cents under the Kansas City March futures, 1 cent stronger than Thursday's basis. KC March closed down 5 cents Friday and for the week gained 15 cents. As we near the implementation of the higher Russian wheat tax, the U.S. is hoping that may mean some chance at export business. However, that could be a tall order given our freight costs and higher cash markets. Saudi Arabia SAGO bought 355,000 metric tons of Australian, Canadian, and Ukrainian wheat for arrival between April and December 2021 without announcing a tender. Milling premiums remain steady as poor rail logistics have slowed cars from moving at a steady pace.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Friday is at 28 cents under the Minneapolis March futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis March futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted; 13.5% proteins were down 5 to up 10 cents at +110 to +125; 14% proteins were unchanged cents at +115; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +115 and 15% proteins were down 10 cents at +125. Receipts were 34 cars, which includes zero train(s). (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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