USDA Reports Summary

USDA Lowers Ending Stocks for Corn and Soybeans

USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday, Feb. 9. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

This article was originally posted at 11:00 a.m. CDT. It was updated at 12:44 p.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Tuesday lowered ending stocks for corn and soybean with boosts in export sales for both crops.

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were pegged at 1.502 billion bushels (bb), down 50 million bushels (mb) from last month's estimate and coinciding with a 50 mb bump in corn exports. Soybean ending stocks were lowered 20 mb by USDA to 120 mb, also tied to a 20 mb increase in exports.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat. Hultman pegged the world ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and somewhat bullish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Among the biggest moves in the report for corn was increasing China's corn imports by 6.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 24 mmt.

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USDA held pat on yield for the 2020-21 corn crop at 172 bushels per acre (bpa) and maintained production at 14.182 bb.

USDA's main change in corn numbers for February was a 50 mb bump in exports, bringing exports to 2.6 bb. That lowered ending stocks by 50 mb to 1.502 bb.

Total use was increased by that 50 mb level to 14.625 bb. That brings the stocks-to-use ratio for the 2020-21 corn crop at 10.2%, down from 10.6% in last month's report.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was increased 10 cents a bushel to $4.30 a bushel.

Globally, USDA increased production slightly to 1,134.05 mmt. USDA also increased exports by 2.07 mmt. Global stocks were increased 2.7 mmt to 286.53 mmt.

USDA held firm on Brazilian corn production at 109 mmt and maintained Argentina production at 47.5 mmt as well.

USDA also raised China's corn imports to 24 mmt, up from 17.5 mmt last month.

SOYBEANS

USDA lowered soybean ending stocks to 120 mb, a 20 mb decline from last month and within 1 bushel of the average pre-report estimate. The agency left the supply side unchanged. As for demand, the only change was in the export estimate, which USDA bumped up 20 mb to 2.250 bb. USDA says the change reflects record marketing-year exports through January as well as a slow start to Brazil's export season.

The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $11.15 per bushel.

Globally, soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop year came in at 83.36 mmt, a change that was just shy of 1 mmt from last month. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production unchanged at 133 mmt and 48 mmt, respectively. China's import estimate was also left unchanged at 100 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA left U.S. 2020-21 wheat production unchanged from the January report, at 1.826 bb and an average of 49.7 bpa. The agency also left wheat demand and use totally unchanged, with domestic ending stocks still sitting at 836 mb.

Farm gate prices were boosted slightly to $5.00 per bushel, up 15 cents from January.

In contrast, USDA dropped global wheat ending stocks 8.97 mmt to 304.22 mmt, well below analyst's pre-report expectations. That's despite a slight increase in global production, up 0.8 mmt to 773.44 mmt, based largely on higher production in Kazakhstan, which made up for lowered production in Pakistan and Argentina. Those higher supplies were offset by a 9.78 mmt increase in domestic use, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China and India, as well as a 1.06 mmt increase in exports.

LIVESTOCK

Higher beef and pork production helped contribute to greater total forecast of red meat and poultry levels in 2021 based off Tuesday's WASDE Report. Beef production for 2021 was increased by 350 million pounds and pork production was increased by 145 million pounds, which ultimately pushed red meat and poultry levels to gain 500 million pounds for the anticipated 2021 production.

Beef production is expected to be the strongest throughout the first quarter of the year, which is largely contributed to swift slaughter speeds and elevated carcass weights. As the price of corn continues to rise, carcass weights are expected to lessen as the year goes on.

Tuesday's WASDE report shared that high production levels are expected for the pork industry throughout 2021, with the second quarter being the smallest and fourth quarter potentially being the most aggressive.

The report's quarterly price projections shared favorable news to both steer and barrow/gilt prices. In February 2020, steers were priced at $108.51, but in the February 2021 projections, steers are priced at $115.00 -- gaining $6.49 over a year ago. The same type of advancements were seen in the barrow/gilt prices; in February 2020 the market was set at $43.18, and now the February 2021 projection has barrows/gilts priced at $50.50, equating to a $7.32 gain over a year ago.

Beef exports grew by 55 million pounds, which is important for the beef industry as offsetting high production levels remains key for strong price levels.

Pork exports remained steady without any notable change.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CST on Tuesday, Feb. 9, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2020-21
Feb Avg High Low Jan
CORN
Argentina 47.5 47.2 47.5 46.5 47.5
Brazil 109.0 108.7 110.2 108.0 109.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 48.0 47.7 48.5 46.0 48.0
Brazil 133.0 132.7 133.5 132.0 133.0
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Feb Average High Low Jan 2019-20
Corn 1,502 1,363 1,502 1,108 1,552 1,919
Soybeans 119 119 140 102 140 525
Wheat 836 834 877 807 836 1,028
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2020-21
Feb Avg. High Low Jan 2019-20
Corn 286.5 280.0 282.7 275.6 283.8 303
Soybeans 83.4 83.3 84.1 81.8 84.3 95
Wheat 304.2 312.6 314.0 310.0 313.2 300
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