DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...90 AT HARLINGEN TX

LOW MON...27 BELOW ZERO AT COTTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...PADUCAH KY 3.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough over the West and a ridge in the Southeast. The trough will move northeast through the country this week while a ridge develops behind it.

Another trough will build just off the West Coast in the middle of the week and a couple of pieces of energy will move through the country at the end of the week and early next week. The main trough will move into the middle of the country in the middle and end of next week as a ridge builds across the Eastern Pacific.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be below normal along the West and East Coasts and above normal in middle of the country. Temperatures will turn to a more cool-west and warm-east pattern in the middle of next week as the main trough advances eastward. A system will move through the eastern half of the country over the weekend into early next week. Moderate precipitation will be possible with snow across the northern Midwest. A larger storm may build in the Plains in the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Below normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday, putting more stress on livestock as we get into calving.

Temperatures should rise above normal at the end of the week. Showers will largely miss the region with the next few systems moving through the country.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system produced heavy snowfall over Kansas and Nebraska over the past couple of days. Some benefit to the driest sections across Nebraska will be felt but areas closer to the Rockies did not receive nearly as much precipitation. A weaker system will move through later Tuesday into early Wednesday with light snow for Kansas and Nebraska. Temperatures will warm significantly thereafter into early next week, melting some snow and adding soil moisture to the profile.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to produce moderate to heavy snow across the northeast Tuesday. Western areas saw quite a bit of snowfall in Iowa, helping to relieve moisture deficits for some of the area. Another system is expected this weekend to bring moderate precipitation to much of the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across western and southern areas this weekend, but continued to be very spotty or dry in the east as was the case last week. Showers will be a little more widespread this week, but amounts are likely to be below normal except for the south, an area that will benefit as more of the crop goes further into reproduction. To the north, the lower rainfall amounts may lead to stress and continue to be insufficient for filling soils for the safrinha corn season.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers fell across the north this weekend, but central and southern areas were dry, continuing the trend from last week of complete dryness. The surplus moisture from the prior week led to increased crop ratings but the dryness may have more stressful effects. A couple of passing systems this week could bring more shower activity to central and southern areas, but the heaviest rains will be over the north. Better chances exist this weekend as a front stalls across the region. Showers will likely be timely for many of the crop that is heading into reproduction.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent this weekend, benefiting developing winter wheat across the south and maintaining adequate moisture for dormant crops over the north. Two systems will bookend this week with one early and another late to maintain favorable prospects.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Little to no precipitation fell across the region this weekend but most areas remain favorable for vegetative winter wheat. A storm early this week and another late this week will provide additional showers to the crop.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall over southern Mozambique this weekend, causing flooding and wind damage into northern South Africa. The low center is going to stall over southern Botswana this week, providing more moisture to the main crop areas through the week.

Outside of Eloise's damage, crops remain in favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Some isolated showers fell in eastern growing regions but much of the country was dry this weekend. Tropical moisture will move through southeastern areas early this week, benefiting cotton and sorghum, but northeastern areas will see little rainfall, causing more irrigation to be used. Reserves remain adequate, however.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Showers have recently been more isolated across western areas of the region over the past week. Despite the dry spell, adequate to surplus rainfall so far this season should produce excellent prospects in the region and rainfall is on the increase.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Heavy snow in Iowa, mixed precipitation in Missouri. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Moderate to heavy precipitation, including snow over the north and freezing rain toward the south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Light snow ending Tuesday. Scattered snow south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Isolated snow showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated snow showers northeast Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Heavy snow in Nebraska and Kansas, scattered showers elsewhere.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers exiting early Tuesday. Scattered showers late Tuesday-early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, mostly east. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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