Commodities Market Impact Weather

Minimal South America Rain Benefit

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Limited crop moisture benefit from possible rain in Brazil and Argentina and sustained La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are the primary features for the commodity market's attention Friday.

MAINLY DRY MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for storm systems in the interior U.S. to largely bypass the Midwest through the middle of next week while temperatures remain mostly above normal. A clipper system moving through at the end of next week may bring some Arctic air into the region, but sustained bitter cold is not indicated.

SOUTHWEST PLAINS MOISTURE CHANCE

Drought conditions remain in effect over the western half of the Southern Plains. The southwest sector may take in some useful precipitation during the weekend, including the Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, eastern areas have had some dryness easing due to recent occurrences of rain and snow.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAY DRY

Northern Plains areas continue with a dry pattern with above-normal temperatures in the seven-day forecast. The region has turned notably drier during this winter. Soil moisture concern remains high regarding the 2021 crop year.

ENHANCED BRAZIL RAIN CHANCE

Across Brazil, central crop areas have only isolated moderate to heavy rain. Crop health is mixed for corn and soybeans. Southern areas have more widespread crop health issues due to dryness, notably in Rio Grande do Sul.

Scattered showers continue over the rest of the country. A frontal boundary may bring more widespread heavy showers to southern areas early next week. Crop benefit will be variable, however, due to the impact of dryness already in effect.

POSSIBLE ARGENTINA RAINFALL

In Argentina, crop conditions are much lower than a year ago, an indication of dryness stress. Scattered showers are possible on Saturday. Forecast models are a little more aggressive with rainfall Sunday and Monday and possibly next week. However, the rain is unlikely to offer significant benefit for crop prospects.

MODERATE LA NINA

La Nina remains in effect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific have widespread values of one to two degrees Celsius below normal. The Southern Oscillation Index atmospheric pressure value is also at La Nina levels, with a 30-day average of plus 19.56 and a 90-day value of plus 10.69. The presence of La Nina continues to suggest drier conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina through the balance of the current crop year along with a dry trend in the U.S. Southern Plains and western Midwest ahead of spring planting.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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