DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the West, a ridge in the Central, and a trough in the East. The pattern will be progressive with several troughs moving through the country over the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a trough will cutoff in the Southern Plains this weekend but will move quickly to the east early next week while another trough will move into the country midweek.

The U.S. and European models are similar through the week but treat storms differently in the outlook period. I will use a blend of the models, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to above normal in the Central and East and near to below normal in the West. Temperatures will fall across the country as as troughs move through, and rise as ridges replace them. A system will emerge out of the Rockies in the Southern Plains over the weekend, spreading showers northeast through the Midwest, Delta, and Southeast.

If the system can sync with a trough moving across the north, moderate to heavy precipitation would be expected and heavy snow may be possible as well.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH SUN...89 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PHARR TX LOW SUN...33 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM SUNDAY...DAYTONA BEACH FL 2.65 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West, a ridge in the Central, and a trough in the East. The pattern will be progressive through the next 10 days with several systems moving through the country.

The U.S. and European models are similar through the week but treat storms differently in the outlook period. I will use a blend of the models but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to above normal in the Central and East and near to below normal in the West. Temperatures will fall across the country as troughs move through and rise as ridges replace them. A system will emerge out of the Rockies in the Southern Plains over the weekend, spreading showers northeast through the Midwest, Delta, and Southeast. If the system can sync with a trough moving across the north, moderate to heavy precipitation would be expected and heavy snow may be possible as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/LIVESTOCK):

Isolated showers moved through the eastern Dakotas over the weekend. Relative dryness and mild temperatures will allow any lingering harvest or fieldwork to wrap up and produce little stress to livestock over the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Widespread scattered moderate showers fell from Kansas southward over the weekend but were more limited in the far west. Another system will move through the region with widespread showers through early Wednesday. The showers may not be very heavy over the southwest, however, where it is dry with drought may have brought winter wheat to dormancy.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers fell over the weekend and were moderate to heavy across the winter wheat belt, benefiting the developing crop. Delays to the remaining corn harvest in the east is possible, however. Another system will bring moderate rain and snow to the region Monday into early Thursday, again benefiting wheat while delaying corn harvest. The active pattern may bring further moderate to heavy precipitation this coming weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers fell across the north this weekend, but recent dryness has benefited the continued harvest. More moderate showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, and another bout Friday through the weekend, may produce more significant harvest delays.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend as showers mostly missed production areas. A system will move through Wednesday into Thursday with more meaningful shower chances and could cause delays. More showers over the weekend could do the same.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers migrated to northern areas this weekend, but some isolated showers did pop up over portions of the south. Stress is more concerning in the south due to recent dryness, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. Showers, though lighter, will be focused more on central growing areas this week, further stressing developing corn and soybeans over the south. Showers move back into the south late this week and continue into early next week, which will ease concerns.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across western areas this weekend, including in Cordoba, which has been in need for nearly the entire spring. Showers developing over southern areas Sunday will spread through much of the country through the week, providing beneficial showers for most of the growing regions. The showers will stall across the north where showers will continue through the weekend. With occasional showers filling in across the central and south as well, conditions are improving for developing corn and soybeans and any remaining filling winter wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell across the southeast with additional isolated to scattered showers across the north this weekend. Showers are highly beneficial for developing winter wheat, which has been able to stave off dormancy due to above normal temperatures. That looks to continue to be the case as no significant cold shots are forecast. Showers have been somewhat absent over Spain lately, but will likely return in the middle of the week.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy showers fell across eastern areas over the weekend, but it has been dry over the west where showers are needed for winter wheat planting. Those showers may come at the end of the week, but the region will still need more.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Scattered moderate to heavy showers fell over the weekend, benefiting developing corn and sugarcane. Showers will continue to be in the area through the week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Isolated showers fell over most areas with moderate showers across the south this weekend. Most areas will be dry this week with increasing temperatures late in the week that could produce stress on developing cotton and sorghum, especially in Queensland.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Recent and forecast showers have been adequate for palm oil prospects as monsoon showers continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers, moderate to heavy south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered rain and snow, moderate to heavy south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered moderate showers through Wednesday with some snow. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, snow north. Isolated showers ending early Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers late Saturday through Monday, may be moderate with snow. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, moderate southeast. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday, ending early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers south Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers, moderate north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday and Sunday, below normal Monday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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