DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough off the West Coast and a ridge through the Central and East. The trough will move through the majority of the country through early next week. Weak ridging will replace the trough in the West this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, a disturbance will move through the West and Central early next week. Another trough will move into the Pacific Northwest in the middle of next week and move across the U.S. through the end of the week, with a ridge replacing it in the West.

The U.S. and European models have showed some inconsistency in the outlook period. I will use a blend of the models, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal in the Central and East and near to below normal in the West.

Temperatures will fall across the South as the trough moves through, but stay mild in the north. A system will move through the Midwest and East in the middle of next week. Another system may move through the South next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH THU...93 AT TUCSON AZ
LOW THU...6 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM THURSDAY...SALEM OR 0.58 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough off the West Coast and a ridge through the Central and East. The trough will move through the majority of the country through early next week. Weak ridging will replace the trough in the West this weekend, with a disturbance moving through the West and Central early next week. Another trough will move into the Pacific Northwest in the middle of next week and move across the U.S. through the end of the week, with a ridge replacing it in the West.

The U.S. and European models have showed some inconsistency in the outlook period. I will use a blend of the models but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal in the Central and East and near to below normal in the West. Temperatures will fall across the South as the trough moves through but stay mild in the north. A system will move through the Midwest and East in the middle of next week. Another system may move through the South next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/LIVESTOCK): Some showers will be possible over the east on Saturday, but temperatures will remain fairly mild with little stress to livestock over the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Recent dry weather may have caused wheat to go dormant as moisture runs out of the topsoil. A system this weekend is expected to bring more widespread showers followed by another early next week, which may reverse the effect in some spots.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Mostly dry and breezy weather over the last few days may have allowed for late harvest and fieldwork. A system this weekend will be followed by another early-to-mid next week. Both systems could bring moderate showers and some snow across the north, causing delays to the remaining harvest but benefiting developing winter wheat.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent dryness has benefited the continued harvest. Scattered moderate showers will move through over the weekend and again in the middle of next week with delays to harvest.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Mostly dry weather over the next several days will promote harvest and fieldwork progress. Showers in the middle of next week may cause some harvest delays.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers will continue over northern areas through next week, with dryness taking over much of the south and central. Stress to corn and soybeans will be possible across southern areas as showers have been more limited. Showers may return in the middle-to-end of next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have been highly beneficial, though long-term deficits remain. Showers will be possible across portions of the west through the weekend but will be unlikely over the east. Widespread scattered showers move back into the region next week and could be significant.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A storm system will bring showers to the eastern half of the continent over the next couple of days, with chances for isolated showers across the north next week. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter grains development ahead of the winter freeze.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers and snow have not been enough to curtail the severe drought in the area. Frosts and hard freezes have been recorded over the past several days and some low temperatures this week have fallen below minus 10 Celsius in Russia, which should turn winter wheat dormant in poor condition.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have boosted soil moisture prior to winter wheat planting, but more are needed. A cutoff storm could be highly beneficial to eastern areas through the weekend.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers will be in the area for the next several days, favorable for both emerging corn and developing sugarcane.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent showers were beneficial for sorghum and cotton in the east. Limited showers and well above normal temperatures may cause stress to developing sorghum and cotton but be beneficial for wheat and canola harvest. Some showers are expected over the weekend, mostly across the southeast. Queensland has had trouble keeping up with rainfall so far this spring and could use more.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Recent and forecast showers have been adequate for palm oil prospects as monsoon showers continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Sunday, heavier south. Some snow north. Scattered showers Monday night through Tuesday, snow north. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Sunday, some snow north. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday, snow north. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday and Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, snow north. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers late Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday, near normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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