DTN Daily Basis Comments
Monday Morning Basis Update
DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:
The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 19 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 2 cents at $3.92. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 51 cents under the January futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 3 cents at $10.97. The national average basis for HRW wheat was unchanged at 26 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 8 cents at $5.26. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 25 cents under the December futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 5 cents at $5.30.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.92 | $0.02 | -$0.19 | Dec | $0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $10.97 | $0.03 | -$0.51 | Jan | $0.006 |
| SRW Wheat: | $5.65 | $0.05 | -$0.29 | Dec | $0.001 |
| HRW Wheat: | $5.26 | $0.08 | -$0.26 | Dec | -$0.002 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.30 | $0.05 | -$0.25 | Dec | -$0.003 |
CORN:
The national average corn basis for Friday is at 19 cents under the December futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. The market gave back most of the 15 1/2 cent gain from Tuesday in reaction to the bullish USDA report. The market got some help Friday from USDA's Weekly Export Sales and Shipments report that had been delayed one day due to the Veterans Day holiday. USDA reported for the week ended Nov. 5 there was an increase of 38.5 million bushels (mb) (978,300 mt) of corn export sales. Last week's export shipments were below what is needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate, but 2020-21 commitments are up 174% versus one year ago. Meanwhile, the weakness in cash ethanol prices and lower gasoline and crude oil markets related to new coronavirus restrictions are all underlying bearish factors for corn. The track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents weaker for December at +120Z, while CIF NOLA basis was 5 cents weaker. There has been a dramatic decrease in secondary shuttle freight costs since earlier in the month with BNSF November freight currently showing no bids and December bid at even money per car to tariff and offered at $250 per car over tariff. UP secondary freight is also showing no bids for November and December is bid at $50 per car over tariff against offers of $300.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
SOYBEANS:
The national average soybean basis for Friday is at 51 cents under the January futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. January soybeans closed up 2 1/2 cents Friday but for the week posted a hefty 46 1/2 cent gain. The market has been supported by the recent USDA ending stocks estimate of 190 mb, the lowest in seven years. Given the strong crush and even stronger export numbers for beans, some wonder if supplies could become tighter than expected. USDA's Weekly Export Sales and shipments report on Friday for the week ended Nov. 5 reported an increase of 54.0 mb (1,468,500 mt) of soybean export sales, with export shipments far above what is needed each week to achieve USDA's current export estimate. In addition, soybean export commitments are now up 125% in 2020-21 versus one year ago. The track PNW soybean basis was 5 cents weaker for December at +120Z, while rail delivered to St. Louis was 7 cents stronger. River basis has been improving as well with the barge freight market backing off the surge seen recently as empty barges are making their way to waiting shippers. The Lower Mississippi River has been open in full over the weekend and, unless more dredging is done near Memphis, this will help traffic flow more smoothly both ways.
SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:
The national average SRW wheat basis for Friday is at 29 cents under the December futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis.
HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:
The national average HRW wheat basis for Friday is at 26 cents under the Kansas City December futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. December KC wheat was up 8 cents Friday and for the week down 3 1/4 cents. The market started the day lower and reversed higher in spite of weekly export sales being bland. There is renewed interest in the flour industry as more restrictions due to COVID-19 and even some shutdowns have the consumer buying more flour again, especially to be stocked for the upcoming holiday baking season. There were no cars Friday to test the spot KC premiums but expect that to go higher when and if cars show up for sale.
HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:
The national average HRS wheat basis for Friday is at 25 cents under the Minneapolis December futures, unchanged from Thursday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis December futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were unchanged not quoted; 13.5% proteins were not quoted; 14% proteins were up 10 cents to unchanged at +125* to +135N; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +100N to +115N; 15% proteins were unchanged at +120 to +160. Receipts were 32 cars, which included one train. * (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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