Commodities Market Impact Weather

Variable South America Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A widely variable rain forecast in South America and short-term benefit from precipitation in major world wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

DRIER MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a warmer and drier pattern across the Midwest during the next week to 10 days. This pattern will offer improved harvest and fall fieldwork conditions.

DRIER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer and drier conditions are in store for the Southern Plains during early November. This pattern will enhance a notable difference in precipitation fortunes, with western areas still in need of moisture and eastern areas with improved soil conditions following rain and snow during the past week.

WINDY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have dry conditions with a windy pattern during the coming weekend. The dry trend continues through the five-day period with favorable harvest and fall fieldwork conditions. Colder and wetter conditions are indicated in the seven-to-10-day time frame.

IMPROVED DELTA CONDITIONS

Delta and Southeast crop areas have dry and warmer conditions ahead in the next week. This combination will allow improved harvest progress along with fieldwork.

WIDE BRAZIL RAIN VARIANCE

Brazil crop areas have a widely variable rain pattern ahead in the next week. Northern and central crop areas are in line for moderate to heavy rain with favorable soil moisture for soybean planting and development. From southern Mato Grosso south through Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall forecasts show much lighter amounts. This large difference in rainfall leads to some concern over southern Brazil moisture prospects through this crop season, enhanced by the presence of a cool La Nina Pacific Ocean temperature pattern.

LIGHT ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina continues with only light rain ahead during the coming week. Soil moisture has had favorable recharge from recent moderate to heavy rain. However, the drier trend will bear watching. Wheat crop prospects have already been lowered due to dryness this growing season.

WEEKEND RUSSIA RAIN

Russia wheat areas continue with a promising round of moderate to heavy rain in the five-day forecast. This would be the best moisture for wheat areas in the past three months. The region is still likely to go into the dormant phase for winter wheat with soil moisture deficits.

FAVORABLE AUSTRALIA CONDITIONS

Australia wheat areas continue with periods of rain through the next week in the forecast. Heavy amounts are indicated in southeast crop areas. However, harvest progress appears likely to continue in most areas.

USEFUL SOUTH AFRICA TREND

A favorable combination of mild weather and periods of showers are in store for South Africa corn areas. Corn planted acreage is reportedly expected to expand in the 2021 season, with a 5% increase in planted area predicted.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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