DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...93 AT NAPLES FL

LOW TUE...28 BELOW ZERO AT WALDEN CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM TUESDAY...FORT SMITH AR 1.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge off the West Coast, a cutoff trough in the Southern Plains, a broad trough across Canada and the northern U.S., and another ridge in the Southeast. The cutoff trough will slowly work eastward through the rest of the week, ingesting Hurricane Zeta as it does so. A ridge will build behind it in the West. A quick-moving trough comes through during Friday through the weekend, followed by a series of weaker disturbances that will favor a more zonal pattern next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement through the period so I will use a blend of the models. They do disagree with a system toward the end of next week. I will favor the European model and keep the system across Canada instead of bringing it through the Central U.S.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal in the Central and East above normal in the West and Northern Plains.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period, especially across the Central U.S. Very little shower activity is expected in the extended period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Zeta was located near 25.1 north latitude and 91.8 west longitude at 4am CT Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall in eastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. The system will bring heavy rainfall to the Delta, Southeast, and portions of the Midwest as it combines with a cutoff system and moves northeast on Thursday.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/LIVESTOCK): Snow cover and temperatures well below normal and freezing will continue for another couple of days before gradually warming this weekend into next week. Delayed harvest and fieldwork along with livestock stress can be expected in the interim.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A cutoff system will continue to produce periods of moderate snow and ice south of Nebraska through Thursday before the system finally moves eastward. Temperatures below freezing will cause damage or push winter wheat toward dormancy, especially for less snow-covered areas, and stress livestock. Temperatures will continue to fall to the 20s as far south as the Texas Panhandle and be much warmer in the southeastern Plains, where a combination of ample moisture and above freezing temperatures will be beneficial for developing winter wheat, outside of flooding risks. The several days of moisture should be an overall benefit over drought-stressed areas and immature wheat, despite the cold. Temperatures will rise over the weekend and especially next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Recent showers have been a boost to soil moisture for winter wheat, but have caused harvest and fieldwork delays. A storm system will spread tropical moisture through the southeast half of the region Wednesday night into early Friday, cutting further into deficits.

Afterwards, drier weather is expected for the following week, allowing for soils to drain and harvest to pick back up.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Moderate to heavy rain is expected into Thursday due to a cutoff system combined with Hurricane Zeta. This will likely produce further delays and potential quality issues on cotton. Dry weather looks to return for the following week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Moderate to heavy rain is expected through Thursday due to a cutoff system combined with Hurricane Zeta. This will likely produce further delays and potential quality issues on cotton. Dry weather looks to return for the following week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Periods of showers will continue for the middle of the country over the next week. With the showers being scattered in nature, fieldwork and planting will continue to show some good progress over the next week. Recent moderate showers across the south have benefited full-season corn.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have benefited developing winter wheat and boosted soil moisture for emerging corn and soybeans. There is still a long ways to go to end the drought and light to moderate showers Wednesday across central growing areas may be the only showers the country sees for the following week.

EUROPE (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Overall, conditions have been very favorable for developing winter grains, though planting has been a little more difficult due to recent showers. Much of the continent will be in the storm path through the weekend, though less shower activity is expected in the south.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Most areas were drier than expected this weekend, continuing the dryness and drought concerns for winter wheat. The dryness continues this week with some chance at isolated showers at the back-end of the week and weekend. Average first frosts occur in northern areas at the start of November and over southern areas at the end of November.

The region is running out of time for building adequate root zones before winter.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have boosted soil moisture prior to winter wheat planting, but more are needed. Especially as the forecast looks drier for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (LIVESTOCK): Temperatures near to below zero Fahrenheit have likely caused pastures to go dormant and stressed livestock. Temperatures well below normal will rise back above normal come this weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent moderate to heavy showers over eastern areas have boosted soil moisture for filling wheat and canola and establishing cotton and sorghum. Scattered showers continue through much of this week. In contrast, western areas have seen below normal rainfall and likely reduced yield potential for wheat and canola. More showers are expected in the west this weekend.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Conditions in the Northeast and North China Plain favor harvest, fieldwork, and winter grains planting. Drier conditions for much of the next week will continue to benefit fieldwork activities, but moisture would be welcome in the North China Plain for developing winter grains.

INDIA (SUGARCANE/RICE/COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent late-season showers across the southern half of the country have disrupted some of the maturing soybean and cotton crops. Showers are more isolated this week and will benefit maturing crops and harvest activities. Winter wheat areas in the northwest and Pakistan have dry weather with favorable soil moisture, planting conditions, and irrigation reserves.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal northwest and near normal southeast.

Forecast:

West: Moderate to heavy rain south Wednesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Moderate to heavy rain Wednesday night-early Friday, mostly south.

Isolated showers north Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures below normal northwest and near normal southeast through Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, moderate snow and ice Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Panhandle. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Periods of showers through Thursday, including snow and ice in the west; mostly dry Nebraska. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures well below normal through Thursday, near to well below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy rain through early Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated coastal showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Scattered showers north Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers overnight. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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