Commodities Market Impact Weather

PARCHED BLACK SEA REGION

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Ongoing extreme dryness in the Black Sea wheat region and delayed but heavy rainfall for South America crop areas are the key weather items for commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST HARVEST DISRUPTION

The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for moderate to heavy rain and snow in the Midwest through the next seven days. This combination will cause harvest disruption. Harvest is running well ahead of average but will have difficulty maintaining that pace with this unsettled pattern.

LIMITED SOUTHERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION

Precipitation in the Southern Plains is expected to be no more than light over the next week. Dryness is stressing wheat in the Southern Plains; Kansas conditions at 31 percent good to excellent are well below the 55 percent total of a year ago. Wheat is likely to go into dormancy with ongoing dryness and drought issues.

SNOW AND COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas continue with a forecast for colder conditions and periods of snow through the balance of the week. This wintry precipitation will disrupt harvest progress.

DELTA SHOWERS

Delta and Southeast crop areas have periods of light showers indicated through the end of the week. Shower will disrupt harvest and may cause further quality issues to cotton in these regions. Recent hurricane activity has already caused some crop damage and quality loss.

ADDITIONAL BRAZIL RAIN PROSPECT

Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for central Brazil during this week. This forecast points to the beginning of the rainy season. The start of the rainy season is about a month later than the 30-year average, which leads to concern over soybean acreage totals. There is also long-term concern over the evolution of the important safrinha corn crop season in central Brazil during the first and second quarters of calendar year 2021.

FAVORABLE ARGENTINA RAIN CHANCE

Central Argentina continues with favorable chances for moderate rain over the next week. This will be favorable for row crop soil moisture ahead of planting.

HISTORIC RUSSIA DRYNESS

Russia wheat areas have only light rain in the forecast this week. This is the heaviest rain total indicated so far this crop season; however, wheat crop benefit is expected to be minimal due to the late arrival of this moisture. Crop benefit is expected to be minimal. The entire Black Sea region has rainfall deficits of 80 to 90 percent below normal over the past 60 days.

RAINY EASTERN AUSTRALIA FORECAST

Eastern Australia wheat areas have moderate to heavy rain indicated in the seven-day forecast. Rain of this quantity may be damaging to ripening wheat. Damage to wheat would be disappointing due to expectation of the largest Australia wheat crop in four years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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