DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge just off the West Coast, a trough in the Central, and another ridge off the East Coast. The trough will be reinforced a couple of times this week, but the overall pattern will remain the same.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

In the 6-10 day period, the trough will be reinforced for the last time over the weekend into early next week, pushing the trough a bit to the west in the process. The pattern will flatten toward the middle of next week as the trough lifts northward into Canada.

The U.S. and European models have shown inconsistency with each reinforcement of the main trough, especially with the final one. I will use a blend of the models, noting that there is ample opportunity for the models to diverge with each passing storm system.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the Four Corners and East, and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will fall in the West as the final trough digs in and may encompass the east by the middle of next week. One system will be leaving the East Coast over the weekend while another moves through the West, emerges into the Plains next Sunday, and moves through much of the country by the middle of next week. This second storm could be very strong with moderate rainfall and heavy snow potential across portions of the Plains and Midwest, though models are mixed on its potential development.

TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...105 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW SUN...9 AT NEIHART MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM SUNDAY...BILLINGS MT 0.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge just off the West Coast, a trough in the Central, and another ridge off the East Coast. The trough will be reinforced a couple of times through the next week, with each reinforcement slightly pushing the trough further to the west. The final reinforcement over the weekend into early next week will likely signal the end of a pattern and the start of a flatter one into November.

The U.S. and European models have shown inconsistency with each reinforcement of the main trough, especially with the final one. I will use a blend of the models, noting that there is ample opportunity for the models to diverge with each passing storm system.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the Four Corners and East, and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will fall in the West as the final trough digs in and may encompass the east by the middle of next week. One system will be leaving the East Coast over the weekend while another moves through the West, emerges into the Plains next Sunday, and moves through much of the country by the middle of next week. This second storm could be very strong with moderate rainfall and heavy snow potential across portions of the Plains and Midwest, though models are mixed on its potential development.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers developed over the weekend, including snow showers across much of the area. Moderate snow accumulated near the Rockies and also around the Black Hills. Three systems will move through the region this week, with moderate snowfall potential with each one. Producers with crops yet to be harvested will be delayed while livestock will be stressed as temperatures fall well below freezing behind each storm.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers fell in Nebraska over the weekend, including moderate snow accumulations through the middle of the state. Several storm systems will bring some shower activity along with a chance for snow at the end of the week in the northwest. Any shower activity will benefit winter wheat development as dryness has been a major concern, though showers will be most likely for northern and eastern areas only. Remaining corn waiting to be harvested could see delays as well.

Temperatures will fall below freezing in the northwest corner of the region at times through the week, especially behind a system late week that could stress livestock and any developing winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Temperatures fell below freezing over some portions of the north and east over the weekend and may have caused some minor damage to developing winter wheat. Otherwise, widespread showers also occurred, but were light for many areas outside of the Ohio River Valley, where moderate showers continue for the main winter wheat growing areas on Monday, benefiting the developing crop. A couple more storm systems will move through the region over the course of the week, including moderate snow for Minnesota and Wisconsin. The increase of moisture will cause harvest and fieldwork delays but will be beneficial for recharging soil moisture. Temperatures will be on the cooler side for the week, but most areas should remain above the freezing mark outside of the northwest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend but generally were light and spotty. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will flow northward through the region this week, feeding shower chances. This is especially true across the north where fronts are likely to stall from passing systems. This could continue to cause harvest and fieldwork delays in the region.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend, allowing soggy soils to continue draining and improving conditions for harvest and fieldwork. Shower chances will be low over the next few days but increase later in the week as a system approaches for the weekend.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers over the last week have ushered in the start of the wet season, two weeks behind normal. Periods of showers will continue over the next week. With the showers being scattered in nature, fieldwork and planting will continue to show some good progress over the next week. Additional showers would be welcome across the south for full-season corn but prospects chances are low until the end of the week, which may cause stress.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed over the north while isolated showers fell in Buenos Aires over the weekend. The region continues to be very dry and in need of moisture for developing wheat and spring planting and germinating summer crops. A front will bring widespread moderate showers early in the week with more likely over the weekend, which could ease the dryness and drought.

EUROPE (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers followed a system exiting to the east over the weekend while dryness was noted for the west and central portions of the continent. Much of the continent finds good conditions for developing winter grains due to recent showers outside of Spain, where shower activity would be more welcome as the region prepares for winter wheat planting. A system will move through the western half of the country with periods of showers continuing eastward later in the week. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter crops for most of the continent.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered moderate showers fell across Ukraine over the weekend, but Russia saw more light and spotty shower activity, with little to no easing the dryness and drought. Some decent shower chances are expected across the winter wheat areas in Russia on Monday but are followed by mostly dry conditions for the rest of the week. Showers may scrape by northern areas, however.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have boosted soil moisture prior to winter wheat planting, but more are needed. Scattered showers will move through later this week but the region is looking for more rainfall to refill deficits caused from last winter's growing season.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers and snow accumulations occurred over the weekend, especially across the south.

Temperatures well below freezing over the weekend continue through the bulk of this week as well and could push rangelands into dormancy and stress livestock.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell across southeastern portions of the country over the weekend but were limited in the west and Queensland, two areas that could use more moisture for reproductive to filling crops. Some occasional shower activity is possible in both of these areas through the week, but will be unorganized until a system moves through the east late this week and weekend. Better growing conditions continue across the southeastern areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Mostly dry weather occurred over the weekend for the Northeast and North China Plain, favoring harvest, fieldwork, and winter grains planting. Some showers occurred across the south which may have disrupted the rice harvest. Drier conditions for much of the week will continue to benefit fieldwork activities, but moisture would be welcome in the North China Plain for developing winter grains.

INDIA (SUGARCANE/RICE/COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers occurred across the southern half of the country this weekend, disrupting some of the maturing soybean and cotton crop. Periods of showers will continue in these areas through the week, continue to cause delays. Winter wheat areas in the northwest and Pakistan have dry weather with favorable soil moisture, planting conditions, and irrigation reserves.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Periods of scattered showers through Friday, including snow north.

Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south through Wednesday, near to well above normal Thursday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday.

East: Periods of scattered showers through Friday, including snow in Wisconsin.

Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Monday-Tuesday, near to well above normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Periods of scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday with some snow possible north. Temperatures below to well below normal northwest and near normal southeast Saturday-Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north, including snow. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Isolated showers north and east through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday, including snow northwest. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal north and above to well above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, below to well below normal northwest and near to above normal southeast Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Periods of scattered showers late Saturday-Tuesday, including snow. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures rising above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, better chances north. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers east. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday into Tuesday. Isolated showers late Wednesday into Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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