Commodities Market Impact Weather

Promising Brazil Rain Chance

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A higher chance for rain in the central Brazil forecast and moisture concern in international wheat regions are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

EASTERN MIDWEST SHOWERS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for light showers in the eastern Midwest during this later-week time frame. The showers will cause some delays in fall harvest while offering moisture for winter wheat development. Colder air moving into the region will bring some freezing conditions; however, this occurrence is a seasonal event.

CONTINUED DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas have a very dry pattern again in store through the next week. This trend is unfavorable for winter wheat. The entire state of Kansas is now in some phase of drought according the U.S. Drought Monitor. Beginning winter wheat conditions in Kansas are reportedly the lowest since 2006.

LIGHT SNOW AND COLDER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas will steadily turn colder during the next week. Precipitation that forms with cold frontal activity will include snow. Mostly light amounts of snow are indicated. No extensive harvest disruption is expected.

LIGHT DELTA PRECIPITATION

Dry conditions continue in the Delta and Southeast through the end of the week. The drier trend will favor a resumption of harvest following hurricane wind and rain in the past week.

PROMISING BRAZIL RAIN CHANCE

Forecast models point to improved rainfall prospects in central Brazil during the next 10 days. Moderate to locally heavy totals in Mato Grosso will favor soybean planting. Planting is at its slowest pace in 10 years in central Brazil; thus, the rain prospect will be closely watched.

POSSIBLE ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina continues with favorable chances for moderate rain in all central crop areas over the next week. This will be closely watched. Longer range forecasts through the 90-day period call for below average rain in the Argentina crop belt.

CONTINUED RUSSIA RAIN CHANCE

Russia wheat area rain prospects continue to be promising over the next 10 days. The South Russia region is the primary focus area for this rain. This is the heaviest rain total indicated so far this crop season. Rain would benefit winter wheat and will be closely tracked. Since August, South Russia has had its lowest rainfall totals in the past 30 years.

LIGHT AUSTRALIA RAIN

Australia southeastern wheat areas continue with light rain in the forecast through the next seven days. Other wheat areas will be mainly dry.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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