Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Concerns

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Dryness and drought concerns along with fears of hurricane damage are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

DRY MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry conditions through the end of the week in the Midwest. This pattern favors row crop harvest. Precipitation the next seven days will be limited. Drought is increasing in the western Midwest with northwestern Iowa identified in extreme drought category on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

WARM AND DRY SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop and pasture areas have a dry and very warm pattern ahead through the next seven days. The dry trend will favor row crop harvest and winter wheat planting. However, soil moisture for wheat and pastures is declining. Only the southeastern sector of the region is drought-free.

WINDY AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Dry and windy conditions remain in place through the rest of the week in the Northern Plains. This pattern will favor harvest progress. Thunderstorms are during the coming weekend which will cause some disruption. Drought is building in the region just over one year after record-wet conditions.

HEAVY HURRICANE RAIN FOR DELTA

Major Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico is on track to bring heavy rain to the Delta during the next five days. The rain will disrupt harvest and threatens to cause significant damage to cotton. Cotton in the region is nearly all harvest-ready and vulnerable to rain and wind damage.

LATE CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Central Brazil crop areas have increasing rain chances during the next seven days. Rainfall may offer enough activity to indicate the start of the rainy season and encourage active soybean planting. Soybean planting has been delayed by more than two weeks later than average due to dry conditions. The region will be hot and dry ahead of the rainfall.

MEAGER ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina has only light rain in store through the next week. Recent rainfall offered only marginal relief from dry conditions. This drier trend will be watched closely for continued effect on central crop areas. An established La Nina Pacific Ocean event has a high correlation to drought in central Argentina.

STALLED EUROPE RAIN PATTERN

Primary crop areas in Europe continue with moderate to heavy rain in the seven-day forecast. This wet pattern is leading to soggy soils and damage to the continent's newly planted winter wheat crop. Some acreage loss is possible.

ONGOING RUSSIA DRYNESS

Russia wheat areas have an ongoing dry pattern for winter wheat. USDA's weekly weather and crop bulletin notes that since Aug. 5, Russia's regional-average rainfall totals are the lowest over the past 30 years -- from south to north -- in Stavropol (20% of average), Rostov (10%), Volgograd (20%), and southern portions of the Central District (30% of average). Krasnodar Krai in the southwestern Southern District improved marginally to 40% of average, still the third driest over the past 30 years.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Australia wheat areas have mostly light to moderate rain showers in the forecast through the next seven days. Southeastern Australia wheat areas may see moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Wheat prospects continue to indicate a much larger crop than the last two years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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