Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Central US Dryness

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Dry central United States conditions and ongoing dryness in Russia wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

DRY FOR HARVEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry and warm conditions across the central U.S. during this first full week of October. This pattern will favor corn and soybean harvest.

WARM AND DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop and pasture areas have a very dry and very warm forecast over the next week. The dry trend will favor row crop harvest and winter wheat planting. However, soil moisture for early wheat development and fall livestock pasture is declining.

WINDY AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Dry and windy conditions remain in place for the next five days in the Northern Plains. This pattern will favor harvest progress.

HEAVY DELTA AND SOUTHEAST RAIN

Moderate to heavy tropical system rain is in store for the Delta and Southeast during the next week. This rain will disrupt harvest and threaten crop damage.

SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil crop areas have increasing rain chances during the next seven days. Rainfall may offer enough activity to indicate the start of the rainy season and encourage active soybean planting.

LIGHT ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina has only light rain in store through the next week. Recent rainfall offered only marginal relief from dry conditions. This drier trend will be watched closely for continued effect on central crop areas.

PACIFIC LA NINA PRESENCE

La Nina conditions are evident in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equator sea surface temperatures are ranging from 1.5 to 3.0 degrees Celsius below average. In addition, the Australia Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is in La Nina categories in both the 30-day average at plus 9.90 and the 90-day average at plus 8.05.

RAIN FOR EUROPE

Europe crop areas are in line for additional rainfall during the next week. Rain will offer a recharge to soil moisture for winter grains planting and germination. However, the rain will disrupt summer crop harvest and may cause some crop damage.

MORE DRYNESS IN RUSSIA

Russia wheat areas continue with a dry pattern for winter wheat. The Black Sea region in general has had no more than 20% of normal precipitation in the past 60 days. Major Russia wheat regions have mostly dry conditions indicated through the next week.

MIXED AUSTRALIA RAINFALL

Southeastern Australia wheat areas have moderate to locally heavy rain in store over the next week. Northeastern and western wheat areas will see lighter rain amounts. Wheat prospects continue to indicate a much larger crop than the last two years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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