Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mainly favorable harvest conditions for corn and soybeans, minimal moisture for the Southern Plains, dryness continuing in Brazil and drought concerns in Russia are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MAINLY FAVORABLE FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for temperatures to fall over the next few days, leading to frost potential across the north through Saturday or Sunday morning. This may cause more rapid maturation of crops across the region. Isolated to scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend and may cause further delays, then mostly dry next Thursday through Sunday. Warmth will return next week with near- to above-normal temperatures after Monday for several days.

SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, frost will be possible across the north over the next few mornings, which may cause further maturation in corn. Soil moisture remains adequate for early germination of wheat, though it is a bit drier in Kansas. Overall dryness should allow more winter wheat planting progress to be made and corn harvest to continue over the next week. Despite some showers this weekend, dryness may build further in Kansas and Nebraska as temperatures rise next week.

WARMER WEEK AHEAD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, some showers will move through Friday and Saturday but will be light. A couple nights near or below freezing will be possible during the next few mornings, which may cause more rapid maturation. Breezy winds and warmth will return next week.

DRY DELTA PATTERN

In the Delta, some showers will move through on Sunday but will only be a brief hiccup in the overall dry pattern during the next week, benefiting harvest and fieldwork.

DRIER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST

In the Southeast, very wet soils from two tropical systems over the last two weeks have likely caused some flooding and damage to mature cotton. Drier weather this week and during the next week help to drain the soil.

MAINLY DRY IN BRAZIL

In Brazil, scattered showers will continue along a stalled frontal boundary across the south through the next week while central and northern areas remain dry. Producers await the start of the wet season for soybean planting in the central and north, but conditions are much better in the south for full-season corn and filling winter wheat. There is a hint that a front moving through late next week could stall and be the start of the wet season for Mato Grosso and the surrounding areas, but that could be optimistic.

EXPANDING ARGENTINA SHOWERS

In Argentina, showers over the north will expand to the south this weekend but will not be overly heavy. Below-normal temperatures will lead to some frost during the next few nights over the far south, possibly causing damage but at the least limiting growth. Any showers will be beneficial for spring planting as soils remain relatively dry for much of the area.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, outside of some isolated showers in the east, most areas will be dry this week.

SHOWERS IN EUROPE

In Europe, a system over the west will bring a potent punch of showers on Friday and spread to eastern areas over the weekend. Much of the continent is in the storm track during the next two weeks with continued rain chances.

DRY RUSSIA FORECAST

Russia and Ukraine wheat areas continue to be under drought conditions, but showers did fall over Ukraine the past few days. Showers will continue over Ukraine through the weekend and into early next week as two systems meander in the area, but very little to no precipitation is expected in Russia. The showers will benefit planting and developing winter wheat in Ukraine, but the dryness continues to be overly concerning for Russia.

LIGHT AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

In Australia, a system is bringing light showers across the east Thursday, but most areas will be on the drier end. Queensland is still behind in rainfall and could use additional moisture for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CHINA

In China, recent showers maintained adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans in the northeast, but crops should be coming closer to maturity and drier conditions would be more favorable. Scattered showers will likely delay maturing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found in the south for rice and sugarcane and in the North China Plain for winter wheat and rapeseed planting.

INDIA MONSOON WITHDRAWS

Monsoon moisture continues to withdraw from India, and showers are becoming much more isolated across the north and west. Still, late-season showers can be counted on in the east.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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