Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cooler but mainly favorable conditions for the Midwest harvest, minimal moisture for the Southern Plains and dryness continuing in Brazil and the Black Sea region are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

COOL FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for overall dryness in the Midwest to benefit ongoing harvest and fieldwork Thursday. Some showers will move through Friday and Saturday but will be light. A couple nights near or below freezing will be possible during the next few mornings, which may cause more rapid maturation. Warmth will return next week.

SOME WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, soil moisture remains adequate for early germination of wheat, though it is a bit drier in Kansas. Overall dryness should allow more winter wheat planting progress to be made and corn harvest to continue over the next couple of days. Despite some showers this weekend, dryness may build further in Kansas and Nebraska as temperatures rise next week.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, overall dryness this week will benefit ongoing harvest and fieldwork Thursday. Some showers will move through Friday and Saturday but will be light. A couple nights near or below freezing will be possible during the next few mornings, which may cause more rapid maturation. Warmth will return next week.

DRY DELTA PATTERN

In the Delta, drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week, favorable for harvest and fieldwork. Some showers will move through on Sunday but will only be a brief hiccup in the overall dry pattern.

SHOWERS, THEN DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST

In the Southeast, wet soils from two tropical systems over two weeks have likely caused some flooding and damage to mature cotton. Drier weather through the weekend will help to drain soils, though some showers will be possible early next week.

MAINLY DRY IN BRAZIL

In Brazil, scattered showers will continue along a stalled frontal boundary across the south through the next week while central and northern areas remain dry. Producers await the start of the wet season for soybean planting in the central and north, but conditions are much better in the south for full-season corn and filling winter wheat.

EXPANDING ARGENTINA SHOWERS

In Argentina, moderate to heavy rain fell across much of the country last weekend, boosting soil moisture for many central areas and in the south. This will benefit developing wheat and prepare soils for spring planting, though it will not be enough to reverse the drought yet. Showers over the north will expand to the south this weekend but will not be overly heavy. Below-normal temperatures will lead to some frosts during the next few nights over the far south, possibly causing damage but at the least limiting growth.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, outside of some isolated showers in the east, most areas will be dry this week.

SHOWERS IN EUROPE

In Europe, a system will continue to bring showers over the eastern half of the continent through Friday, boosting soil moisture for germinating winter crops. Harvest has been delayed, however. Another system moving into the west will bring a potent punch of showers through the weekend and spread to eastern areas. Much of the continent is in the storm track during the next couple of weeks with continued rain chances.

DRY RUSSIA FORECAST

Russia and Ukraine wheat areas continue to be under drought conditions, but showers did fall over Ukraine the past few days. Showers will continue over Ukraine through the weekend and into early next week as two systems meander in the area, but very little to no precipitation is expected in Russia. The showers will benefit planting and developing winter wheat in Ukraine but the dryness continues to be overly concerning for Russia.

LIGHT AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

In Australia, a system is bringing light showers across the east Thursday, but most areas will be on the drier end. Queensland is still behind in rainfall and could use additional moisture for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CHINA

In China, recent showers maintained adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans in the northeast, but crops should be coming closer to maturity and drier conditions would be more favorable. Scattered showers will likely delay maturing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found in the south for rice and sugarcane and in the North China Plain for winter wheat and rapeseed planting.

INDIA MONSOON WITHDRAWS

Monsoon moisture continues to withdraw from India and showers are becoming much more isolated across the north and west. Still, late-season showers can be counted on in the east.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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