DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...116 AT WINTERHAVEN CA

LOW THU...22 AT GRAND LAKE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM THURSDAY...MACON GA 6.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a cutoff trough in the Eastern Pacific, a ridge in the Rockies, a trough through much of central and eastern Canada, and a few tropical systems in the Atlantic. The Canadian trough will lift northeast this weekend, but leave a piece of it behind off the East Coast, allowing for Hurricane Teddy to move into the Gulf of Maine or Canadian Maritimes next week. The cutoff trough in the Eastern Pacific will move through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains this weekend. A weak disturbance will move across the north next week, but could pinch off a piece of it into a cutoff low in the South by the end of next week. A new trough moves through the West and into the Great Lakes next weekend. Tropical Depression 22 developing in the Gulf of Mexico will likely strengthen in Tropical Storm Wilfred over the next day or two while it meanders around the Gulf for much of the period.

The U.S. and European models are similar for most of the period, so I will use a blend of the models.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal for much of the country, and near to below normal in the Southeast.

Temperatures should gradually rise through the period, cooling late in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. A system will move across the north with scattered showers in the middle of next week with another next weekend. We will have to monitor the track of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as models are very inconsistent with a track.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Outside of some isolated showers this weekend, dryness will benefit remaining spring wheat as well as early corn harvests.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/COTTON): Drier weather for much of the next week will benefit harvest and winter wheat planting activities. Soil moisture is adequate for early germination of wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): The region will be mostly dry for much of the next week, benefiting harvest activities. Dryness could reduce soil moisture for winter wheat planting, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dryness over the next week will benefit maturing crops and harvest activities.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Sally brought heavy rainfall and flooding and caused significant damage to mature cotton.

Some wind damage was likely in Alabama as well. Drier weather over the next several days should help crops dry out.

BRAZIL (CORN/COTTON/WHEAT): Recent showers have benefited corn planting and reproductive to filling wheat in the south. Some showers are expected over central Brazil next week but may not be particularly substantial for soybean planting just yet.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers over the north have boosted soil moisture for developing wheat. But drought still remains across much of the central and southern portions of the country. Mostly dry weather is expected over the next week, stressing developing crops.

EUROPE (SPRING GRAINS/CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Little to no precipitation occurred over the last several days. A slow-moving storm will produce more widespread showers in the west over the weekend and into next week, boosting soil moisture for winter wheat. Overall, conditions are beneficial for harvest of summer crops and winter grain planting.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (SPRING GRAINS/CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Only scattered lighter showers are expected through the weekend. This will favor harvest activities. Soil moisture continues to be well below normal, delaying winter wheat planting.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT): Outside of scattered showers this weekend, conditions are favorable for harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Queensland is falling short on rainfall to start the spring and could use more. There may be more promising showers this weekend and early next week for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Three typhoons moved through northeast China recently, causing widespread flooding and wind damage to filling corn and soybeans in the region. Periods of showers are expected for most areas into the weekend, with some heavy rain potential in the Yangtze River Valley. Overall favorable conditions are found in the south for rice and sugarcane and in the North China Plain for winter wheat and rapeseed planting.

INDIA (SUGARCANE/RICE/COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon moisture will continue to withdraw from northwest to southeast over the next 4 weeks. Still, the showers can be counted on for late-season fill. The outbreak of locusts has started to become contained as swarms migrate westward and control measures are reported to be working. Extensive damage has still been reported for all crops in the region, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal north and near to above normal south.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers southeast. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary: Spotty showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers central and north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Spotty showers north Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal south and above normal north Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers far south Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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