OMAHA (DTN) -- Ongoing western Midwest dryness and Pacific Ocean indicators reaching La Nina levels are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.
MINIMAL WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN
The DTN ag weather forecast calls for crop prospects in the western Midwest to continue a decline that began in the last six weeks. Heavy rain fell over northern and eastern areas of the region over the weekend, but missed key areas of Iowa, Illinois, and northern Missouri. A few storm systems will move through the region over the week, but rainfall is likely to be more limited and scattered, with little widespread help to filling corn and soybeans.
VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE
In the Southern Plains, showers and thunderstorms focused on eastern areas with soil moisture benefit ahead of winter wheat planting. Western and southwestern areas still need moisture. These drier areas have mainly light precipitation indicated during the next week.
DRIER NORTHERN PLAINS TREND
Northern Plains crop areas had periods of thunderstorms with some locally severe intensity during the past weekend. This week is drier and cooler. Drier conditions favor spring wheat harvest. Soil moisture is mainly adequate for late-stage row crops.
FAVORABLE DELTA AND SOUTHEAST PATTERN
The Delta saw heavy precipitation and flooding occurred last week with scattered showers over the weekend. This was a benefit as most areas did not see more than 2 inches of rain except in the drier sections of northeast Arkansas and Tennessee where rainfall of up to 5 inches was estimated from radar. Already mature cotton likely did not encounter much degradation. Southeast crop areas had scattered showers with benefits to cotton. Showers will become more isolated during the coming week.
LIGHT PRAIRIES RAIN
Light rain continues in store for the Canadian Prairies through the next five days. Dryness is most prominent in Saskatchewan. This pattern will generally favor harvest. Temperatures have a below normal trend indicated.
LA NINA TREND IN PACIFIC
The closely tracked Pacific Ocean Southern Oscillation Index is in La Nina categories on the 30-day running average. La Nina effects include a drier fall season in the Northern hemisphere and increased rainfall prospects for eastern Australia in the southern hemisphere.
STILL DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL
Central Brazil crop areas continue with have a dry pattern through the next week. This trend will be closely watched for possible change ahead of mid-September. The mid-September period is the official starting date for the beginning of soybean planting. Southern crop areas have moderate to heavy rain in store.
CHILLY AND DRY FOR ARGENTINA
Argentina central crop areas had some sub-freezing temperatures during the past weekend. Frost and freeze threats continue this week. In addition, most wheat areas will be dry. The general effect is unfavorable for wheat.
LIGHT AUSTRALIA SHOWERS
Australia wheat areas have light showers in store this week. Some areas of Western Australia and Victoria may see locally moderate totals. Overall wheat crop prospects are much larger than a year ago.
Bryce Anderson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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