Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Minimal rainfall ahead for the Midwest, and above- to much-above-normal temperatures in central crop areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

LIMITED MIDWEST PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for portions of limited rain for the Midwest in the next seven days. Iowa and the eastern Midwest are and have been turning drier in the last week or two, which could stress filling corn and soybeans, though most of the region is in good shape. Scattered showers will occur mostly across northern areas through much of the next week with some showers sneaking north across the Ohio River during the weekend. A front will slip southward late next week with better chances for more widespread showers. Temperatures in the Midwest will be above- to much-above normal for the next seven days. This will lead to more drying of crops and soils.

LOW CHANCES FOR WEST TEXAS RAIN

In the Central and Southern Plains, showers will be more likely across the north and west Friday, with chances expanding across the region this weekend. Showers will benefit filling corn where they occur, but much of the region has above-normal soil moisture due to rains over the last month outside of northeast Nebraska, where dryness continues. West Texas has seen relief from recent heat, though temperatures are expected to be near to above normal for the next week and rainfall chances are low. Stress to boll setting and opening cotton will continue and require further irrigation.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas have isolated showers expected into next week. The overall dryness will be good for harvesting wheat while showers will be beneficial to filling corn where they occur.

POSSIBLE MOISTURE FOR DELTA NEXT WEEK

In the Delta and Southeast, it has been dry over the last several days, causing stress to the drier sections of the region for filling cotton and soybeans. Isolated showers will develop Friday and possibly through next week, but organized showers do not look likely, continuing to stress drier areas. We will have to watch the track of a tropical system moving into the Gulf Coast in the middle of next week. The storm could track through the region with heavy rainfall potential.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST

In the Southeast, some dryness continues across Georgia and Alabama where the showers have not been able to keep up with demand as readily, but scattered showers will continue in the region over the next week, benefiting those areas they hit. Being scattered, some areas of dryness will continue or build in areas that are missed. Despite this, conditions are mostly favorable for boll setting and opening cotton. We will have to watch the track of two tropical systems moving into the Gulf Coast in the middle of next week. Either or both storms could track through the region with heavy rainfall potential.

VARIABLE PRAIRIES RAIN

Canadian Prairies will have isolated showers and above-normal temperatures continue over the next week, being a bit steadier and heavier in the north. Conditions look favorable for harvest in the south and remaining filling crops in the north.

BRAZIL FROST THREAT

Brazil has dry conditions continuing to favor the remaining harvest activities for corn and cotton in the central and north. A front around Parana is producing showers in the region but will dissipate as the front moves northward this weekend. Temperatures are falling dramatically behind the front, causing some frosts and potential freezes over southern areas and potentially affecting wheat. Full-season corn is also starting to be planted in the south. Soil moisture is looking good for germination, but the temperatures are worrisome for anything that is starting to poke through the soil.

ARGENTINA RAIN CHANCE

Dryness continues to be a concern for the interior of central Argentina as shower chances remained farther east. With temperatures below to well-below normal, frosts and freezes will continue to limit growth and keep the crop dormant. There does seem to be relief on the horizon as showers may be more widespread and heavier in the middle of next week.

VARIABLE EUROPE RAINS

In Europe, the storm track is setting up over the continent, with a series of storms producing showers over the course of the next week. This will continue the mostly favorable conditions for filling crops, though maturing crops could use some dryness. Spain and Italy have been left out of the precipitation for the most part, and summer crops could use more precipitation. The storm track looks to stay north of these areas, however.

SCATTERED BLACK SEA SHOWERS

In the Black Sea region, soils continue to be drier for much of the eastern two-thirds of the region, though northern areas, and particularly the Volga Region in Russia, have benefited most from scattered showers over the last couple of weeks. The western half of Ukraine will continue to see periods of showers on Friday and more next week, as well, but the rest of the region looks to have very little and will continue to stress filling crops.

MIXED AUSTRALIA RAIN

In Australia, showers will continue over the southern portions of the growing region through this weekend, but Queensland is not expected to see much rainfall, which could stress developing wheat and rapeseed. Otherwise, favorable conditions continue across most of the country.

FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

In China, overall favorable conditions continue in the northeast for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans and in the south for rice and sugarcane.

MONSOON MOISTURE IN INDIA

Monsoon moisture continues to spread across the country but is lighter than normal in the south. Still, conditions are favorable across most of the region. The outbreak of locusts has started to become contained as swarms migrate westward and control measures are reported to be working. Extensive damage has still been reported for all crops in the region, however.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.