Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mostly favorable temperatures and rain for primary corn and spring wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST RAIN

In the Midwest, much of the drier sections of western Iowa saw less than 0.50 inch of rainfall during the last week or more and reproductive corn and soybeans are overly stressed, but some of the drier sections of Indiana and Ohio received over 2 inches of rain earlier this week. The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a system Thursday through early Sunday that is expected to bring more heavy rainfall across the south and then the east. Though it could be localized, heavy rain and flooding will be a risk.

Scattered showers will be found along a front that moves through the region Saturday through early Tuesday with widespread lighter showers. Outside of areas of flooding, the showers will benefit reproductive to filling corn and soybeans and both systems may even catch parts of western Iowa with some showers.

ACTIVE TREND IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains areas have locally heavy rain for southern areas Wednesday. Another system will bring heavy rainfall for Nebraska and Kansas late Wednesday through early Friday. More periods of isolated showers are expected to occur this weekend through next week, mainly over the west and north. Outside of any flooding, the showers would be beneficial to reproductive corn and cotton and also keep temperatures below normal.

VARIABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Northern Plains, scattered showers over the last week were beneficial for reproductive corn as soil moisture remains above normal. Maturing spring wheat will benefit from more dryness as we move into August. Outside of a system moving slowly through the southern portions of the region Wednesday to Thursday, and a front with scattered showers over the Dakotas Friday to Saturday, drier conditions are forecast through early next week. Scattered showers return with a couple of systems in the middle-to-late next week time period.

USEFUL DELTA MOISTURE

The Delta crop areas will see periods of scattered showers, heavier at times, through Friday. Reproductive cotton and pod-setting soybeans will benefit from the showers as long as flooding does not occur. That would be more likely for the northern portions of the region.

SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST

Isolated to scattered moderate to locally heavy showers continue to support mainly adequate to surplus soil moisture for reproductive cotton over the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES HEAT

Canadian Prairies crop areas have adequate to surplus moisture benefiting heading wheat. Overall good conditions are observed. Alberta and Saskatchewan are seeing heat warnings this week.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA REGION RAIN

In the Black Sea region through central Asia, the Volga region of Russia continues to be drier. Stress to corn and sunflowers in reproduction along with some damage has been likely. Prospects are much better across Ukraine into south Russia where showers have been more plentiful this summer. Showers will be present mostly for western areas through the middle of the week but a storm system will bring at least some showers to eastern areas late this week and weekend. Any showers would be welcome for corn and sunflowers here.

NORTHERN EUROPE RAIN FOCUS

Across Europe, scattered showers continue to favor northern and eastern growing areas from England and Germany through Italy eastward. Southwestern areas need rain over France and Spain, but very little is forecast over this week. A storm system moving across the north and eastern portions of the continent this week will bring clearing conditions behind it. A system will move through this weekend into early next week, but with limited rainfall over the west.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL TRENDS

Across Brazil, dry conditions continue to favor harvest of corn and cotton in the central and north, while conditions remain favorable for developing wheat in the south. Showers will be limited in agricultural areas as a front works along the coast through the weekend. Drier weather is expected for the next several days.

ARGENTINA DRYNESS CONCERNS

In central Argentina, dryness continues to stress developing wheat this winter. Temperatures will continue to fall below freezing through Friday morning where frosts and freezes continue to be hampering. Temperatures look to increase this weekend but showers do not for most areas, remaining especially dry for the interior.

DRIER WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

Australia wheat areas need more moisture in the eastern wheat belt for developing wheat and rapeseed, especially in Queensland, but rain is not forecast for the next week, putting extra strain on irrigation supplies that are starting to fall.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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