Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A combination of hot conditions followed by timely rain for the Midwest and additional indication of dryness-related reduction of the wheat crop in Russia are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MIDWEST HEAT AND RAIN COMBINATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for improved soil moisture in the western Midwest following moderate to heavy showers during this week. The rain will track through the eastern Midwest Thursday, but with less intensity, leading to further concern for pollinating corn and flowering soybeans in Indiana and Ohio. Heat will build in for Saturday through Monday, with stress in drier areas. Showers and thunderstorms is expected across the north through this weekend and migrate over the southern areas for early next week, benefiting the entire region.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, recent moderate to heavy showers from Nebraska to Oklahoma have been beneficial to reproductive corn and cotton. Showers will continue to pulse through this portion of the region through the weekend, becoming more scattered early next week as a front stalls over Nebraska and Kansas. Continued mainly hot and dry conditions in West Texas remain stressful on developing cotton.

ADDITIONAL NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Across the Northern Plains, continued periods of moderate to heavy showers are supporting good soil moisture. This looks to continue over the next week, especially in the Dakotas, benefiting developing to reproductive crops.

ISOLATED DELTA RAIN

Delta and Southeast crop areas have mainly high temperatures with only isolated showers through the end of the week. Adequate soil moisture remains for developing cotton and soybeans from previous rains, but some dryness may develop this week in spots due to increasing heat and isolated shower coverage.

FAVORABLE PRAIRIES CONDITIONS

Favorable conditions continue for much of the Canadian Prairies, except for central and northern Alberta where soggy soils and lower temperatures have stunted growth. Scattered showers will continue through the weekend and into next week.

DRYNESS HITS RUSSIA WHEAT

In the Black Sea region, the impact of dryness in early July is expected to cause a reduction in spring wheat harvest, adding to the impact of dryness already noted in the Russia winter wheat crop. In addition, intense heat over the past week was likely damaging to summer corn and sunflowers in southern Russia, where temperatures topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit for several days. With the heat gone, any periodic showers in the region would be beneficial to reproductive crops, but will be limited to just a few chances over the next week. In Ukraine, prospects remain good to excellent, especially in the west.

SHOWERS TO CROSS EUROPE

Across Europe, favorable conditions for summer crops continue across much of the continent. More showers would benefit crops in France through Spain and Italy; otherwise, showers over central and eastern Europe through early next week will continue to have a positive effect on reproductive crops.

CONTINUED DRY BRAZIL HARVEST PATTERN

In central Brazil, Mato Grosso has a continued dry pattern for safrinha corn harvest through the remainder of the week.

DRY LATE WEEK FOR ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, mainly dry conditions and temperatures falling below freezing have continued to stress developing wheat. Showers will develop over Buenos Aires this weekend, spreading further west early next week, which would be greatly welcome.

BENEFICIAL AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

In Australia wheat areas, recent showers have been beneficial for developing winter wheat and rapeseed, especially in Queensland, where some dryness has been noted recently. Showers will continue over the western wheat belt to finish out the week, but showers will not be very generous in the east as a system passes through. While not concerning yet, showers would still be welcome, especially in Queensland.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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