Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A hot and dry outlook for the Midwest during the next 10 days and the continued impact of much-below normal spring rain in Europe and Russia wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

STRESSFUL MIDWEST HEAT FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a dome of high pressure to form over the southeastern Midwest during the next week to 10 days. The center of this dome is projected to locate in the Ohio Valley. If the forecast verifies, the effect would be a round of stressful heat and dryness over the eastern Midwest. Western Midwest areas located on the periphery of the high pressure dome have higher prospects for periods of rain along with less stressful heat.

DRY AND HOT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, showers and thunderstorms are indicated for the eastern half of the region during the next week. The western half of the region has a drier pattern with high temperatures. This will continue to be stressful for dryland crops including cotton. Non-irrigated corn, pasture and livestock will also incur stress due to heat and dryness.

MORE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas continue with mostly favorable crop weather conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are indicated to continue moving across the region, supporting good soil moisture where they occur. Temperatures show a variable trend with no extreme heat through the next week.

FAVORABLE DELTA TREND

Delta and Southeast crop areas have additional periods of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. These occurrences will maintain favorable crop prospects.

MORE PRAIRIES SHOWERS

Showers and thunderstorms continue in the forecast for the Canadian Prairies. Precipitation from the storms may lead to some crop areas having excessive soil moisture. Temperatures will turn notably lower as well, leading to slower crop progress.

VARIABLE RAIN IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, rainfall amounts below 50% of normal in Russia are leading to reduced wheat yields as harvest begins. The greatest impact has been in the large-production South Russia oblast. The next week features rain crossing Ukraine, but largely bypassing Russia.

EUROPE DRYNESS IMPACT

A dry spring is leading to sharply reduced estimates of Europe wheat production. France and Germany incurred the most extensive dryness.

CONTINUED DRYNESS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL HARVEST

In central Brazil, Mato Grosso continues to have a dry pattern for safrinha corn harvest. The pattern remains dry and favorable for continued progress in the forecast over the next week.

COLD AND DRY IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, frost-level overnight low temperatures and dry conditions continue in the forecast through the end of the week. This pattern will be stressful to developing wheat. Wheat acreage in Argentina is likely to be reduced because of the dry and cold pattern.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS AHEAD

Australia wheat areas have several periods of showers and thunderstorms forecast through the next week. This includes portions of Queensland, which has been drier recently.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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