Commodities Market Impact Weather

Widely Scattered Midwest Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A continued forecast for scattered rainfall in the Midwest during the next week and the impact of a dry spring in Russia wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

ISOLATED MIDWEST RAIN FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for isolated showers to continue to pop up in the Midwest. Amounts vary from light to locally heavy due to convective thunderstorm formation. Coverage does not appear to be widespread enough to offer dryness easing in the eastern sector. Temperatures remaining above normal will bring further stress. Disturbances will likely focus showers across the north for anything more substantial through Thursday. A trough building into the east later this week may provide much-needed moisture to the eastern states Friday through Sunday. If showers are not as intense as expected or more scattered, dryness will continue to mount in the region as it turns drier again while heat continues next week.

HIGH HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas have a hot pattern in store through the next 10 days. This pattern will favor the latter stages of wheat harvest in Kansas but will be stressful to row crops and livestock. Most of the region has little to no rainfall forecast through the 10-day period.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

Northern Plains crop areas have mostly favorable conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are indicated to continue moving across the region, supporting good soil moisture where they occur. Temperatures show a variable trend with no extreme heat through the next week.

ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR DELTA

Delta and Southeast crop areas will have periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week. These occurrences will maintain favorable crop prospects. Some local flooding is possible.

SHOWERS TO CROSS PRAIRIES

A new round of showers and thunderstorms is indicated to cross the Canadian Prairies during the next few days. Precipitation from the storms may lead to some crop areas having excessive soil moisture. Temperatures will turn notably lower as well, leading to slower crop progress.

DRY SPRING AFFECTS RUSSIA WHEAT

Rainfall amounts below 50% of normal in Russia are leading to reduced wheat yields as harvest begins. The greatest impact has been in the large-production South Russia oblast. Russia crop areas have very light precipitation indicated over the next week to 10 days as well.

EUROPE RAIN FOCUS ON NORTH

The European continent has two storm systems on tap to bring rain to much of the continent this week, especially the north, benefiting developing summer crops. France may be left out of the showers. And after a wet early start to the week, the southeast will become drier, benefiting the winter wheat harvest.

FAVORABLE CENTRAL BRAZIL HARVEST PATTERN

In central Brazil, Mato Grosso continues to have a dry pattern for safrinha corn harvest. The pattern remains dry and favorable for continued progress in the forecast over the next week.

DRY AND CHILLY IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, chilly overnight low temperatures and dry conditions continue in the forecast through the end of the week. This pattern will be stressful to developing wheat.

VARIABLE AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

In eastern Australia wheat areas, the past weekend featured showers in Victoria, but very little elsewhere. Queensland notably needs additional rain. Some showers may develop in Queensland later in the week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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