Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued hot and dry conditions in the western Plains, rain in the seven-day forecast for the Midwest, and a favorable dry pattern for wheat harvest in the Central and Southern Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

SHOWERS LATER IN WEEK FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for heat to build across the Midwest through the week, and after a few mostly dry days, showers look to return late-week into next week. If soils do not dry out too much, the incoming showers later in the week should provide good growing conditions across the region. In the six- to 10-day forecast, scattered showers are expected Sunday to Tuesday, with isolated showers next Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday to Tuesday, and near normal on Wednesday to Thursday.

DRY, HOT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains will see only isolated shower chances during the next several days, with above-normal conditions. It could be better in the region Thursday to Sunday. Conditions are seen as favorable for the wheat harvest. Red flag warnings continue to show a high wildfire danger in some areas of the western Central and Southern Plains.

WINDY, SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, temperatures got into the upper 80s to middle 90s Fahrenheit during the weekend and look to continue over eastern areas for through Wednesday, before a front moves through and lowers temperatures back down to or slightly below normal. The heat brings some showers for portions of the region as well. Wind is also a factor and may promote drying soils. Some stress to developing wheat due to the heat and recent dryness may be a concern. Periods of showers will continue over the region, however, as the upper level trough slowly works its way through.

LIMITED DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, soil moisture is adequate to surplus after the heavy rainfall from Cristobal last week. With limited to no showers expected this week, soils may dry out and stress vegetative soybeans and cotton. The next chance for significant showers does not come until early-to-mid next week.

PERIODS OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST

In the southeastern U.S., an upper-level system will produce periods of moderate rainfall mostly over the Carolinas through the week with drier conditions from Mississippi to Georgia. This could stress developing cotton in the area, though soil moisture appears adequate at this time.

MORE SHOWERS FOR PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas had moderate rainfall across the region over the weekend, and severe thunderstorms occurred in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan. Adequate to excessive soil moisture continues in the west with improving soil moisture in the east, especially in Saskatchewan. Portions of a storm will linger through the coming weekend with more periods of possible showers, which will benefit emerging crops.

SHOWERS IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Scattered showers fell across much of Ukraine and Russia over the weekend, including the drier areas in both countries. Despite some areas of flooding, the showers were welcome as recent heat has dried soils, hurting the remaining filling wheat and summer crops. Periods of showers will continue for portions of Ukraine and southern Russia, but heat will again build into the region, especially late in the week. Areas of eastern Ukraine and central Russia, where showers look to be more limited, will likely see more stress.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

Scattered showers fell across much of Europe over the weekend and were moderate in a zone from the Netherlands through Bulgaria/Romania with some flooding. Scattered showers look to continue over the course of this week, heavier in that same zone. Heat has been tempered by showers. Where showers did not occur, temperatures will rise above normal. Southern areas could stand to see less rainfall to allow wheat to dry down and harvesting to take place. After several weeks of continued showers in the east, too much rain is limiting sunlight for developing summer crops.

DRIER FOR BRAZIL

In Brazil, the prospects on corn and cotton continue to fall behind as systems just cannot push far enough north to provide showers, though the growing season is just about over for most of the region. Most of the wheat areas in the south are in good shape, however. This week will be a bit dry for much of the region with only a couple shots at showers across the far south.

SHOWERS THIS WEEK FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, soil moisture is short in the central and south outside of Buenos Aires, and some stress to emerging wheat may be occurring. Showers look to increase across much of the region this week as several storm systems move through.

SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

In Australia, scattered moderate showers fell across the entire wheat region over the weekend. Areas in the east that were lacking picked up close to 1 inch of precipitation, favoring developing winter grains. More showers will work through the country this week, and soil moisture and irrigation reserves are both adequate to continue favorable growing conditions.

FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

Overall favorable conditions are found in northeast China for corn and soybean growth. Drier weather over the central areas will benefit wheat and rapeseed as harvest will start up soon. Showers in the south continue to be beneficial for developing sugarcane and rice.

INCREASING INDIA RAIN

Heavy rainfall fell across the middle of India as a tropical low moved west over the weekend. Elsewhere, rainfall continues to increase across the country as we head through the early monsoon season. This is beneficial to all areas for prepping soils for planting and for early growth. An outbreak of locusts has migrated into western India. Extensive damage has been reported for the early cotton and winter wheat crops. The swarm is starting to devastate newly planted summer crops, including cotton.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.