Commodities Market Impact Weather

Favorable Midwest Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A favorable combination of rain and heat for Midwest crops and an ongoing prospect for hot and dry conditions in the Black Sea region are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

HEAVY CENTRAL MIDWEST RAIN FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for above- to much-above-normal temperatures across the Midwest through the weekend. The hotter conditions will be accompanied by periods of thunderstorms, easing stress potential and allowing for crop progress. Heat, soil moisture and showers offer good growing conditions through the middle of next week. The Cristobal tropical system will likely bring heavy rainfall and risks for flooding where it tracks next week. The projected track is through the Mississippi Valley.

CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

Southern Plains areas will be hot and dry through the weekend, continuing to stress crops and livestock. Winter wheat prospects are being shaved due to the hot and dry pattern.

ACTIVE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Northern Plains, heat through the weekend could lead to stress for emerging and developing crops. A large storm system moves through the region early next week, which will lead to thunderstorm activity and lower temperatures. Showers look best in the west and east, though could happen across the region. Cooler and drier weather is expected by the middle of next week.

TROPICAL RAIN PROSPECT IN DELTA

The Delta will see periods of showers through the weekend, alleviating some recent dryness in spots. If Tropical Storm Cristobal tracks through the region early next week, it will likely bring heavy rainfall and risks for flooding.

MIXED SOUTHEAST RAIN CHANCE

In the southeastern U.S., scattered showers moving across the region through this weekend will help to alleviate recent dryness in some parts of the region. Cristobal is expected to stay off to the west and as it passes through the middle of the country on Sunday-Tuesday, could have a limiting effect on shower activity across the area. Near- to above-normal temperatures should help foster rapid crop and pasture growth.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, a large storm system is in line to bring moderate to heavy rain across the region during the next five days. The rain will be generally favorable for crops.

DRY AND HOT PERIOD IN BLACK SEA REGION

Across the Black Sea region, hotter and drier conditions continue in the forecast through the next week to 10 days. This pattern is stressful for winter wheat in Ukraine and Russia.

WESTERN EUROPE SHOWERS

In western Europe, showers have finally returned to drought-hit areas from the UK and northern France to Germany and should continue through at least the weekend and possibly through all of next week.

HEAVY SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN FORECAST

Across Brazil, southern crop areas continue to be in line for moderate to heavy rain through the weekend. The rain is coming too late for meaningful crop benefit. Farther north, mainly dry conditions in Mato Grosso will be favorable for the safrinha corn harvest.

NORTHERN ARGENTINA SHOWERS

In Argentina, rain is indicated for northern areas through the next five days. Some harvest delay may occur. Meanwhile, little to no rain is indicated for primary wheat areas. The new winter wheat crop is in need of moisture.

LIMITED AUSTRALIA RAIN

Australia wheat areas continue with a dry pattern. Soil moisture reserves will be called on for wheat crop development.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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