Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Midwest Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A wet pattern for the central United States and limited precipitation for Europe crop areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

WIDESPREAD MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a rainy pattern across the Midwest through the weekend. Heavy rainfall moving through the eastern Midwest the last few days has caused very wet fields and led to flooding. Rain is still noted near the Ohio River. Many areas have seen flooding from the system and planting has been delayed. Otherwise, rain has been beneficial to emerging crops. Additional moderate to heavy rain is likely during the end of this week and through the entire final week of May.

WET SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

Rain is indicated to cross the Southern Plains through the weekend, including drier western sectors. Central and eastern sectors have heavy amounts indicated with flood potential. Western areas will have some benefit from rain; however, improvement in wheat crop prospects is likely to be marginal due to extensive crop loss prospect already following drought and freeze damage.

MORE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Northern Plains crop areas have multiple rounds of rain indicated through the weekend. The rain will keep soils saturated in many fields in the eastern sector of the region. Prevented planting is likely. Western areas will have some benefit from recent drier conditions.

WEEKEND DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has an active shower and thunderstorm period in the forecast during the next 10 days. Moisture will generally be favorable for crops.

SCATTERED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Southeastern U.S. crop areas have widely scattered showers in the five-day forecast. Dryness easing will be minimal.

MORE RAIN FOR PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, recent rains have eased dryness in Saskatchewan and Alberta. The rainfall has also delayed fieldwork and planting. Additional showers during the next week are indicated, which will keep planting progress show. The temperature pattern also turns colder in the forecast and will need to be monitored for frost and snow potential on emerging crops.

LATE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Across Russia and Ukraine, moderate to heavy rain is in store through the next week. Indicated coverage is more extensive in southern Russia. Rain benefit will be marginal due to dryness impact already noted in the region. USDA notes that 60-day rainfall remains well below half of normal from southern Ukraine into southern portions of Russia's Southern District (Krasnodar Krai) despite recent showers.

MINIMAL WESTERN EUROPE RAIN

In Western Europe, rain will be very light over the next week. Dryness is leading to declines in wheat production.

MIXED BRAZIL PRECIPITATION

Across Brazil, central crop areas (Mato Grosso, Goias) have very little rain in the forecast through the weekend. This bears watching for possible adverse impact on the safrinha corn crop. Southern Brazil crop areas have heavy rain forecast in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with some flood potential.

VARIABLE ARGENTINA RAIN

Argentina crop areas have variable rain in the seven-day forecast. Northern areas have light to moderate totals, while southern areas will be mainly dry.

BENEFICIAL AUSTRALIA MOISTURE

Australia wheat areas continue with adequate moisture for wheat seeding and early crop development. Western Australia areas could use some additional precipitation.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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